东海证券晨会纪要

Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring marginal performance changes and suggests positioning in individual stock opportunities within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1][52]. Economic Overview - The employment situation remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate at 5.0% in June 2024, unchanged from the previous month [5]. - In the first half of 2024, per capita income increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while actual consumption expenditure rose by 6.7%, indicating a 1.4% growth in income over expenditure [5]. Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector Analysis - The total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector in A-shares is 5.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.54% of the total A-share market [7]. - The sector's trading volume for the week was 225.3 billion yuan, representing 6.49% of the total A-share trading volume, with a week-on-week increase of 8.58% [7]. - The report notes a net outflow of 1.838 billion yuan in main funds from the pharmaceutical industry last week [7]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector slightly underperformed the broader market index, showing signs of stabilization. The report highlights a focus on individual stock performance during the earnings disclosure period [15]. - The sector has experienced a 21.07% decline year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 22.27% [34]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 24.0 times, at a historical low, with a valuation premium of 108% compared to the CSI 300 index [34]. Consumer Spending Trends - In June 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0732 trillion yuan, growing by 2.0% year-on-year, which is below the expected 4.0% [31]. - The report indicates that online consumption is declining, while offline consumption is recovering rapidly, with offline retail sales growing by 8.6% year-on-year in June [31]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks with strong performance and those with sufficient risk release and reversal expectations [15][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Teva Biopharmaceuticals, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and others within the pharmaceutical sector [16][53].