XD INC(02400) 开源证券·2024-07-18 05:31Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The self-developed life simulation mobile game "Heartbeat Town" officially launched on July 17, with pre-downloads ranking No 1 on the iOS free list and TapTap hot list, with over 300,000 pre-registrations and over 800,000 downloads on TapTap, with a score of 8 8 The game is expected to attract users through quality and word-of-mouth, retain users through rich content and strong social interaction, and monetize through low-priced skins and outfits, driving stable revenue growth [2] - The WeChat mini-game version of "Let's Go Muffin" launched on July 17, with the game maintaining a top 25 position on the iOS bestseller list and over 3 million downloads across all platforms The mini-game version is expected to cover more Android users and non-core players, further boosting overall game revenue [3] - TapTap is expected to benefit from increased advertising demand due to the launch of numerous new games in 2024, including Tencent's "DNF Mobile" and "StarCraft: Dawn", NetEase's "Naraka: Bladepoint" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds", and miHoYo's "Zenless Zone Zero" The platform's zero-commission policy and large core user base are expected to drive user growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 6,005 million yuan in 2024, 7,313 million yuan in 2025, and 7,955 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 77 2%, 21 8%, and 8 8% respectively [5] - Net profit is projected to be 783 million yuan in 2024, 1,137 million yuan in 2025, and 1,246 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 1,043 4%, 45 1%, and 9 6% respectively [5] - Gross margin is projected to be 63 7% in 2024, 64 9% in 2025, and 65 2% in 2026 [5] - Net margin is projected to be 13 0% in 2024, 15 5% in 2025, and 15 7% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to be 31 4% in 2024, 31 3% in 2025, and 25 6% in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be 1 6 yuan in 2024, 2 4 yuan in 2025, and 2 6 yuan in 2026 [5] - P/E ratio is projected to be 9 3x in 2024, 6 4x in 2025, and 5 8x in 2026 [5] - P/B ratio is projected to be 2 6x in 2024, 1 8x in 2025, and 1 3x in 2026 [5] Company Overview - Current stock price is 16 22 HKD [6] - One-year high and low are 22 25 HKD and 7 47 HKD respectively [6] - Total market capitalization is 7 796 billion HKD [6] - Total shares outstanding are 481 million [6] - Turnover rate over the past 3 months is 50 73% [6]