黄金周报：美国6月CPI通胀全面降温，金价继续走强

Price Trends - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels this week, supported by declining inflation data from the US and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[1] - As of July 12, the Shanghai gold futures price rose to 565.96 CNY/g, an increase of 1.13% from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures reached 2416.00 USD/oz, up 0.68%[27] - The international gold basis increased significantly to 7.35 USD/oz, up 6.90 USD/oz from the previous week[31] Economic Indicators - The US June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1%, marking the first negative month-on-month change in four years[62] - The market anticipates an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, following the release of the CPI data, which has led to a decline in the US dollar index to 104.10, down 0.73% from the previous week[37] Market Dynamics - The gold ETF holdings increased slightly to 835.09 tons, up by 0.28 tons from the previous week, indicating a stable demand for gold[8] - The trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased by 7.25% to 118,430 kg compared to the previous week, reflecting a potential shift in market sentiment[8] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold[16] - The complexity of the situation may lead to fluctuations in gold prices as market participants react to developments in the region[16]