水泥新时代研究专题之一：水泥，走向常态化和差异化错峰时代

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry and specifically for the cement manufacturing sub-industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that staggered production is the only short-term effective measure to improve capacity utilization in the cement industry, which is expected to show normalized and differentiated characteristics starting in 2024. The overall profitability expectation for the industry is recovering from its bottom [3][6]. - The report recommends leading cement companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, Tianshan Cement, and Tapai Group [3][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The cement industry is entering an era of normalized and differentiated staggered production, which is essential for alleviating capacity utilization pressure and restoring pricing and profitability [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in capacity utilization relies more on supply-side adjustments, as demand is currently in a downward trend [9][10]. Capacity Utilization and Production Cuts - The decline in capacity utilization is identified as the fundamental reason for increasing profitability pressure in the industry. The overall profitability of the cement industry in 2023 is approximately 32 billion, down 80% from 2021 [7][8]. - Staggered production is highlighted as the only quick-acting measure to alleviate capacity utilization pressure, with a significant increase in staggered production days observed in various provinces [11][12]. Regional Implementation and Profitability Recovery - The difficulty of regional implementation of staggered production is influenced by local demand strength and the steepness of the supply curve. Regions with weak demand and low cost differences are more likely to achieve significant production cuts [17][18]. - The report categorizes regions into four quadrants based on demand and cost characteristics, indicating varying levels of cooperation and competition among companies [19][20]. - The report notes that the willingness to restore prices is strong among leading companies, with staggered production plans being implemented across multiple regions since late May 2024 [23][24]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend leading cement companies, including Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, Tianshan Cement, and Tapai Group, as potential investment opportunities [3][7][25].