医药行业2024年中期策略报告：行业复苏已至，创新驱动成长

Investment Rating - The report expresses confidence in the pharmaceutical sector for the second half of 2024, indicating a positive outlook for growth driven by recovery and innovation [2]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical industry has seen significant recovery due to nearly a year of special rectification activities, leading to a gradual restoration of hospital diagnosis and treatment services, as well as the introduction of new products [2][10]. - The impact of centralized procurement on the industry is diminishing, as most major products have already undergone procurement, and the rules for procurement are becoming more moderate [2][12]. - Government policies are increasingly supportive of innovative drug development, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the entire innovation chain for pharmaceuticals [2][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical index has decreased by 21.07% in 2024, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.2% [4]. - As of July 12, 2024, the overall PE valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 24 times, with a valuation premium of 74.4% compared to the CSI 300, which is below the four-year average [6][7]. Regulatory Environment - The anti-corruption campaign in the medical field has entered a normalization phase, with significant achievements over the past year, leading to a recovery in hospital operations and procurement processes [8][10]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical market is expected to perform well in the second half of 2024 due to a low base effect from 2023 and the normalization of operations following anti-corruption measures [10]. - The hospital pharmaceutical market in China reached a scale of 867.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.77% [19][21]. Procurement Dynamics - Since 2018, nine rounds of centralized procurement have included 423 varieties, with limited new products entering the procurement process, leading to a gradual reduction in the marginal impact on the industry [12]. - The rules for procurement of medical consumables are continuously optimized, with price reductions becoming more moderate, providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers [12][13]. Innovation and Development - The "Full Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development Implementation Plan" has been approved, which is expected to benefit innovative pharmaceutical companies [17]. - The market for non-procurement products is growing, with domestic companies showing significant contributions compared to foreign companies [22].