证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 商业银行浮息债扩容，怎么看？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 国内浮息债市场始于 1995年，经历了三轮扩张期（1995-2000年、2003-2011 年、2014-2021 年），规模量级逐轮抬升，债券品种也逐渐丰富。2022-2024 年，浮息债发行规模显著下降，全年发行规模在 1300-2000 亿元，2025 年浮 息债发行规模再次进入扩张周期，发行量（截至 9 月 12 日）达到 2649 亿元。 不过目前我国浮息债存量规模依然偏小。截至 2025年 9 月 12 日，国内浮息债 存量规模合计 6216 亿元，占所有债券余额的比重仅为 0.3%。分债券类型来 看，政策银行债是我国浮息债市场最大品种，占比达到 80%。分基准利率来 看，浮息债挂钩利率主要为 DR007 和 LPR，分别占比 49%、42%。 ►2025 年商业银行浮息债扩容，但流动性偏弱 2025 年 6 月以来，商业银行先后发行多只浮息债，发行规模合计 389 亿元， 是 2013 年之后再次重启发行。不 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股债共创奇迹日 复盘与思考: 9 月 16 日，权益市场体现出强韧性，短暂回调后迎来反弹。科技仍然是主战场，机器人、半导体领涨， 科创 50、创业板指分别上涨 1.32%、0.68%，大盘品种上涨动能相对较弱，沪深 300 下跌 0.21%、上证指数 上涨 0.04%。债市迎来久违的修复行情，早盘市场继续定价中美谈判和"反内卷"，10 年、30 年国债上行至 1.81%、2.11%，午后债市迎来强势修复，市场演绎股债双牛行情。 当前债市多空因素交织，市场风险偏好、增量政策预期以及机构行为或仍是影响市场短期表现的主要因 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A 上涨 0.48%，全天成交额 2.37 万亿元，较昨日（9 月 15 日）放量 639 亿 元。日内来看，指数上午走弱，不过午盘开始强势回升并最终翻红，反映行情韧性十足。中小市值股票相对跑 赢，中证 2000 涨 1.61%，微盘股指数涨 1.49%，中证 1000 涨 0.92%，而沪深 300 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 新型储能行动方案印发，AIDC 延续高景气度 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 特斯拉正在敲定 Optimus V3 设计 随着后续 Optimus V3 推出&特斯拉积极推进量产，T 链核心零部件 供应商有望率先受益。同时，马斯克提到每条手臂搭载的执行器数 量有提升，我们预计对于灵巧手主要零部件供应商有边际向好的变 化，建议重点关注灵巧手部方案还未收敛的传动、感知等环节，持 续看好积极布局微型丝杠、腱绳、电子皮肤的核心供应商。 2.新能源汽车 8 月国内新能源汽车销量同环比提升 我们认为，随着国内新车型的不断上市，叠加旺季到来，国内新能 源汽车销量有望持续增长，渗透率不断提升。从后续的增长趋势来 看，新技术演变带来的终端车型性能的升级，是驱动新能源汽车销 量增长的核心推动力。持续看好固态电池、高压实正极材料、硅碳 负极、高性能导电剂等新产品、新技术方向，以及放量带来的量利 双升。此外，国内外储能快速发展，动储需求共 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report highlights key beneficiaries from new national standards in fire safety, particularly recommending Qingniao Fire Protection, which is positioned to benefit from the commercialization of fire-fighting robots and the new fire safety standards [5][6] - The report notes an industry trend of "anti-involution," with price increases in the photovoltaic glass sector, recommending companies like Qibin Group, Fuyao Glass, and Xinyi Solar as beneficiaries [5][6] - Cement industry self-discipline is accelerating, with recommendations for Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, among others, as they benefit from price recovery [5][6] - The report emphasizes the high demand for specialty electronic fabrics, recommending China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and International Composites as key players [5][6] - Companies with strong mid-year performance and low valuations, such as Sankeshu and Weixing New Materials, are also recommended [5][6] Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national average cement price is 338 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4%. The average shipment rate remains stable, and companies are pushing for price increases to improve profitability [2][24] - In various regions, prices have been adjusted, with increases of 10-30 RMB/ton in places like Hebei and Fujian, while some areas like Henan and Hubei have seen price declines [24][37][48] Photovoltaic Glass - The report indicates that the mainstream order price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass remains stable at around 13 RMB/sqm, while 3.2mm coated glass is also stable at about 20 RMB/sqm [2][5] Specialty Electronic Fabrics - China Jushi reported a revenue of 9.109 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, with a net profit of 1.687 billion RMB, up 75.5% [5][6] Real Estate Market - In the 37th week of the year, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.3709 million sqm, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the cumulative transaction area was 61.3913 million sqm, down 19% [3][20] - The second-hand housing market in 15 monitored cities saw a transaction area of 1.7335 million sqm, a year-on-year increase of 2% [20] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the establishment of the Xinjiang New Tibet Railway Company, with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, is expected to accelerate investment in the region [5][6] - Companies focused on engineering and materials in Xinjiang, such as Xinjiang Jiaojian and Beixin Road and Bridge, are expected to benefit from increased regional investment [5][6]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 甲骨文 OpenAI 强强联手，英伟达发布 CPX [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 甲骨文 OpenAI 强强联手，签订算力大单 本周，甲骨文市值暴增 2438 亿美元（约合人民币 1.73 万亿元）， 收盘市值达到 9222.24 亿美元。公司今年累计涨幅达到 98%。根据 国际金融报，近日《华尔街日报》援引知情人士消息报道称，OpenAI 已与甲骨文签署了一份史无前例的云计算合同，在未来五年内购 买价值约 3000 亿美元的算力服务。当地时间 9 月 9 日，甲骨文公 布截至 8 月 31 日的 2026 财年第一财季业绩，公司报告期间营收 149.3 亿美元，同比增长 12%；非 GAAP 下净利润为 43 亿美元，同 比增长 8%。公司第一财季的云计算收入同比增长 28%至 71.86 亿 美元，占总营收的 48%。 英伟达发布 CPX，提供新推理硬件方案 根据财联社，全球人工智能算力芯片龙头英伟达周二宣布，推出专 为长上下文工作负载设计的专用 GPU Rubin CPX，用于翻倍提升当 前 AI 推理运算的工作效率 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：久违的股债同涨 | 国内市场表现 | | --- | 复盘与思考: 9 月 11 日，股债双牛，科技概念依旧是股市的主要拉动，在机构与主力资金的支撑作用下，科创 50、 创业板指涨幅分别达到 5.32%、5.15%，积极情绪带动下，上证指数、沪深 300 涨幅同样扩大至 1.65%、 2.31%。债市找到了新的精神寄托，早盘惯例演绎"股债跷跷板"，10 年、30 年国债收益率一度攀升至 1.83%、2.11%，午后市场开始交易"央行重启买债"预期，利率快速修复。 权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A 上涨 2.26%，全天成交额 2.46 万亿元，较昨日（9 月 10 日）放量 4606 亿 元。在经历了混沌阶段之后，市场终于做出了选择——向上进攻。9 月 4 日以来，资金经历大涨大跌之后较为迷 茫，体现在市场成交额持续缩量；今日的放量上涨则是迷茫期结束的信号。同时，大幅上涨也符合流动性牛市较 烈的修复特征。从 9 月 5 日开始历时五个交易日，当前万得全 A 收于 6230.17 点，已 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the green aluminum sector, with steadily improving profitability driven by production growth and rising aluminum prices [1][24]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain layout and is strategically located near key raw material production areas, enhancing its competitive edge [2][51]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has significantly decreased, and it has been increasing its dividend payout ratio over the years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Aluminum Integration Leader with Steady Profitability Improvement - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in green aluminum, with a business model encompassing bauxite mining, alumina production, green aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][13]. - As of June 2025, the company has established a production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.08 million tons of green aluminum, and 0.8 million tons of anode carbon [1][16]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an aluminum production volume of 1.6132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%, with revenue reaching 29.078 billion yuan, up 17.98% [1][24]. 2. Gradual Increase in Capacity Utilization, Highlighting Long-term Value of Green Aluminum - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 19.30% for bauxite and 24.71% for alumina, benefiting from proximity to rich bauxite resources in Guangxi [2][51]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 96.34% in 2024, the highest since 2021, with a forecast of maintaining high levels in 2025 [2][63]. - The company benefits from low electricity costs due to abundant hydropower resources in Yunnan, with a significant portion of its electricity generated from renewable sources [2][68]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 57.6 billion yuan, 58.9 billion yuan, and 60.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2% respectively [4][93]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 6.5 billion yuan, 7.41 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 47.4%, 14.0%, and 11.9% respectively [4][93]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.87 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.91, 8.69, and 7.77 [4][93].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss the current situation of pig production and measures for capacity regulation among 25 pig farming enterprises [1] - Since late May, there have been frequent policies regarding capacity regulation in the pig farming industry, including a reduction of 1 million breeding sows to a target of 39.5 million [2] - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been steadily decreasing, with a decline of 3.65% as of the first week of September [2] - The current pig prices are low, with August's average price below 14 yuan/kg and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to under 12.5 yuan/kg [3] Summary by Sections Policy and Regulation - The government has implemented strict measures to control the breeding sow population and reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter [2] - Major enterprises like Muyuan Foods have committed to reducing their breeding sow population, with a planned reduction of 3.82% by the end of the year [2] Market Dynamics - The breeding sow population is currently at 40.42 million, slightly above the normal level, indicating potential for further reductions [3] - The pig price is expected to rise in the future due to a combination of active and passive capacity reductions, improving the supply-demand balance [3] Investment Opportunities - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Lihua Stock, which is expected to benefit from rising chicken prices and a growing pig farming business [6] - The company plans to achieve a pig output of over 1 million heads in 2024, with a projected increase to 2 million heads in 2025 [6]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up by 4.93 points or 0.13%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4445.36, increasing by 9.11 points or 0.21%[1] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell to 474.40, down by 3.01 points or -0.63%[1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume for the day was 2.00 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by 6 billion yuan[2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with a notable reduction in trading volume indicating uncertainty among investors[5] Sector Analysis - From September 2 to 9, stock ETFs saw significant net inflows in the brokerage sector, with 4.295 billion yuan into securities ETFs and 2.627 billion yuan into brokerage ETFs[3] - The non-bank financial and metals sectors also saw inflows of 4.7 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating a shift in investment focus[3] Technology Sector Insights - AI computing power rebounded, with Oracle projecting a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure business to reach 18 billion USD this year, significantly exceeding market expectations[4] - The market's upward movement is not solely concentrated in AI, as sectors like ice and snow tourism, and healthcare services also showed strength, indicating a diversification of investment interests[4] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose to 1.829% and 2.108% respectively, reflecting increased selling pressure in the bond market[7] - The central bank initiated a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan, shifting the funding environment towards balance[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in H1 2025, achieving a revenue of 2.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.48%, and a net profit of 547 million yuan, up 214.32% year-on-year, with a record high in non-recurring net profit [1][2] - The European offshore wind auction market is experiencing a high boom, with the company benefiting from abundant orders and expected delivery growth [2][3] - The company is transitioning from a product supplier to a system service provider, expanding its service range to include specialized shipping, shipbuilding, and offshore wind power operations, which is expected to create new growth curves [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.48%, and a net profit of 547 million yuan, up 214.32% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit reached 563 million yuan, marking a 250.48% increase year-on-year, the highest for the same period in history [1] Market Outlook - The global offshore wind auction volume reached a historical high of 56.3GW in 2024, with Europe contributing 23.2GW [2] - The company has secured nearly 3 billion yuan in orders since 2025, with overseas offshore wind orders growing rapidly, covering multiple offshore wind projects in Europe [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively transforming into a system service provider, expanding into specialized shipping and shipbuilding, and has successfully developed three specialized ship types for offshore wind equipment transportation [4][9] - The company has signed a contract for the construction of a 23,000 DWT heavy-duty wind power deck transport ship, expected to be delivered in 2027 [8] Growth Projections - The company expects to see continued growth in overseas deliveries, with a projected increase in offshore wind delivery volumes from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of 6.064 billion yuan, 8.021 billion yuan, and 10.431 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth rates [11]