中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产由子沛：房地产泡沫成因与全球房价运行周期

Group 1: Real Estate Market Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that global housing prices have shown an upward trend over the past 80 years, with prices generally outpacing inflation [9] - Key factors driving excessive housing prices include external shocks, weak fundamentals, and endogenous changes, with different countries exhibiting varying dominant factors [9] - Historical data shows that major economies experiencing real estate bubbles have an average decline of 30.5% in housing prices from peak to trough, taking an average of 5.44 years [9] Group 2: Export Trends and Economic Outlook - The report highlights that China's export share has increased by over 1 percentage point since the pandemic, with significant contributions from supply chain shifts and new export products [5][9] - Emerging markets such as ASEAN, Russia, and Mexico have become key destinations for Chinese exports, with ASEAN surpassing the EU as China's largest export market in 2023 [9] - Projections for 2024 suggest that China's export share will remain resilient, with expected global export ratios between 13.8% and 14.2% [9]