BGE(603588) 德邦证券·2024-07-19 03:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Gaoneng Environment (603588 SH) for the first time [12][26] Core Views - The company's resource utilization business is expected to see significant growth driven by capacity expansion and metal price increases [12] - Gaoneng Environment is projected to achieve revenues of 15 21/17 46/19 32 billion yuan in 2024-2026 with YoY growth of 44%/15%/11% [12][26] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 0 92/1 11/1 27 billion yuan in 2024-2026 with YoY growth of 81%/21%/15% [12][26] Business Performance Resource Utilization - Solid and hazardous waste resource utilization revenue increased by 59 5% YoY in 2023 accounting for 61 14% of total revenue [78] - The business is expected to grow at 66 9%/18 7%/13 3% in 2024-2026 with gross margins of 10%/11%/11% [9][11] - Jiangxi Xinke project completed front-end treatment upgrades potentially improving profitability [9] Environmental Operations - The company operates 13 waste-to-energy projects with total daily processing capacity of 11 000 tons/day [134] - 7 hazardous waste disposal projects with total licensed capacity of 161 800 tons/year [134] - Environmental operations revenue grew 11 71% YoY in 2023 with gross margin of 46 57% [11] Environmental Engineering - New environmental engineering contracts reached 3 123 billion yuan in 2023 up 6 4% YoY [24] - Revenue declined 23 84% YoY in 2023 but is expected to grow 10%/5%/3% in 2024-2026 [11] Technological Upgrades - Multiple technical upgrades completed at key subsidiaries including Gaoneng Pengfu and Jingyuan Gaoneng improving production efficiency and capacity [3][131] - Upgrades include smelting system drying system ultra-low emission system and oxygen-enriched side-blowing smelting system [3] - These improvements have increased processing capacity by 30% and reduced metal content in waste residue [3] Market Position - The company has established a comprehensive solid and hazardous waste treatment system covering the entire industrial chain [36] - As of 2023 the company holds hazardous waste operation licenses for 1 145 million tons/year including 983 000 tons/year for resource utilization [36] - The company benefits from its location in key industrial clusters ensuring stable waste supply [36] Financial Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 10 58 billion yuan in 2023 to 19 32 billion yuan in 2026 [11] - Gross profit margin is projected to stabilize around 16 7%-17 1% in 2024-2026 [11] - EPS is forecasted to increase from 0 33 yuan in 2023 to 0 83 yuan in 2026 [15]