年中展望 | 2024年下半年海外宏观经济与利率展望——箭在弦上,引而待发

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy showed moderate cooling in the first half of 2024, with GDP growth rate dropping from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.4% in Q1 2024[2] - Private investment supported the economy, rebounding to a quarterly annualized rate of 4.4% in Q1 2024, offsetting declines in consumer spending and government expenditure[2] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to over 4.7%, before stabilizing around 4.3%[1] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have fluctuated, with projections stabilizing around 1-2 cuts for the year following a decline in inflation in April and May[23] Consumer Spending Dynamics - Factors supporting consumer spending, such as income and savings, are expected to weaken, with the savings rate remaining low and consumer confidence declining since Q2 2024[4] - Retail and food service sales have shown a downward trend since December 2023, influenced by declining disposable income growth and the exhaustion of excess savings[82] Employment Trends - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.8% at the end of Q1 2024 to 4.1% by the end of Q2 2024[26] - Non-farm payroll growth has been revised down by 250,000 for the first five months of 2024, indicating a weaker employment landscape than previously reported[26] Investment Outlook - High interest rates are likely to continue suppressing manufacturing and construction investment demand, although knowledge-based investments may provide some offset[8] - The weak inventory replenishment cycle is expected to persist, further dragging down manufacturing performance[85] Housing Market Insights - The housing market is experiencing structural pressure due to high interest rates, with new home sales growth turning negative, which may impact residential investment going forward[100] - The recovery in new home sales is insufficient to compensate for the decline in existing home sales, maintaining overall pressure on the housing market[100]