环球市场动态 美 元 弱 势 至 少 在 年 内 持 续 股 票 A 股周四涨跌不一，创业板再创三 年新高；港股高开低走，银行股拖 累大盘；欧洲股市普遍下跌，特朗 普贸易政策不确定性再度影响市场 情绪；美股三连跌，二季度 GDP 上 修影响市场降息预期。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场观望俄罗斯与北约之间的局 势，周四国际油价震荡；失业救济 人数和二季度 GDP 终值显示美国 经济强韧，降息预期略为降温，美 元跟随美债收益率走强；国际金价 高位靠稳；银价 14 年来首次突破 45 美元。 固 定 收 益 美国中短期国债领跌，强于预期的 经济数据令债市承压，收益率曲线 走平。亚洲债券需求回温，债券利 差普遍收窄 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 26 日 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 9 月重启降息，预计年内后续以及 2026 年美联储降息将持续，而欧央行降息放缓、日本央行 仍在加息进程中的背景下，美欧、美日利差预计将进一步收窄。同时，美国就业市场走弱、经济动能放缓预计 也将导致美元走弱。此外，特朗普致力 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with Hong Kong and China leading gains, while U.S. markets faced downward pressure due to high valuations concerns expressed by Fed Chair Powell[3][9]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.6% to 97.87, while the Japanese yen led declines among G-10 currencies[4][26]. Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.37% to 26,500 points, driven by strong performances from technology stocks, particularly Alibaba, which surged by 8.19%[11][9]. - A-shares also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% to 3,853 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.8%[16]. Sector Analysis - In the U.S., 7 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the materials sector leading the losses at 1.59%, while the energy sector gained 1.23%[9]. - In Hong Kong, the technology sector led gains with a 2.53% increase, while utilities and healthcare sectors faced declines[12]. Commodity and Bond Market Insights - International oil prices rose over 2%, with WTI crude oil increasing by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel due to ongoing supply risks from Russia[4][26]. - The U.S. bond market faced pressure from a large issuance of corporate bonds, including Oracle's $18 billion offering, leading to fluctuations in yields[29]. Economic Indicators - U.S. new home sales unexpectedly surged over 20% in August, indicating a robust housing market[6]. - China's central bank advisor called for fiscal support for the real estate sector, highlighting ongoing economic challenges[6]. Key Developments - The U.S. initiated a 232 investigation into imported medical devices, which may lead to tariffs affecting the industry[6]. - TSMC announced a 50% price increase for its 2nm process technology, impacting semiconductor pricing across the industry[22].

环球市场动态 把 握 降 息 后 亚 洲 股 市 投 资 机 遇 股 票 A 股周一上涨，科技股、黄金股表 现突出；港股弱势震荡，大型科技 股普遍走弱，果链逆市走强；欧洲 股市多数收跌，部分大型汽车公司 盈利预警给市场带来压力；美股续 创新高，英伟达 (NVDA US) 拟重 金投资 OpenAI 点燃市场热情。 外 汇 / 商 品 受美联储降息前景以及黄金 ETF 资金流入提振，周一国际金价再创 历史新高；投资者观望欧盟针对俄 罗斯石油的限制措施，国际油价靠 稳。 固 定 收 益 美国国债交易清淡，收益率小幅走 高，因美联储官员言论略显鹰派。 亚洲债市平静，利差几无变动。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 23 日 ▪ 美联储降息周期重启，预防式降息有利于新兴市场。复盘 1984 年以来美联储的 9 轮降息周期，纾困式降息周 期新兴市场股指以下跌为主，预防式降息周期新兴市场股指整体以上涨为主。在预防式降息周期中，港股市场 往往具有显著弹性，主要系港股投资者结构多元，是内外资金交汇点，在预防式降息周期当中，政策 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年9月22日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) ETF iShares安碩 恒生科技ETF (2) 印度市场焦点 消费税下调 期望提振经济 股票 等待情绪反转； Mahindra； Varun Beverages ETF iShares安碩核心 SENSEX印度ETF 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 港股市场焦点 美联储降息旨在 避免经济滑向衰退 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 股票 预计本轮预防式降息利好 港股核心资产； 腾讯控股；阿里巴巴 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 美联储降息，全球多个市场股市再创新高 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价* | 1周变动 | 1个月变动 | 3个月变动 | 1年 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a continuous decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.3% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.04%[15] - U.S. stocks reached new historical highs, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.4% to close at 46,315.3 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.5% to 6,664.4 points[6][8] - European markets saw slight declines, with the Stoxx 600 down by 0.2% and the UK FTSE 100 decreasing by 0.1%[8] Economic Indicators - The market's concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese purchases of Russian oil eased, leading to a drop in international oil prices by over 1%[26] - The expectation of continued U.S. interest rate cuts has driven international gold prices higher, with gold rising by 0.7% to $3,676 per ounce[26] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led gains, with the information technology index up by 1.19%, while the energy sector faced a decline of 1.28%[8] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index remained flat, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.37%[10] Investment Insights - Nvidia plans to invest $5 billion in Intel, indicating a positive outlook for future business collaboration in the data center and PC markets[5] - The semiconductor sector is under scrutiny, with companies like Cambricon Technologies experiencing a significant drop of 5%[15] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 0.8 basis points to 3.57% and the 10-year yield up by 2.3 basis points to 4.13%[29] - Asian bond markets showed limited trading activity, with spreads narrowing by 0-3 basis points[29] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.3%, while the dollar's value against the Chinese Yuan remained stable at 7.118[25] - The Euro appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.175, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-to-date[25]

"十 五 五 "数 字 经 济 再 上 新 台 阶 股 票 环球市场动态 大型科技股普遍回调，周四港股跟 随 A 股午后跳水，高开低走。亚太 股市跌多涨少，台日韩股市持续强 势，逆市造好。欧洲股市上升，德 股涨幅居前。拉美股市下跌。英伟 达入股英特尔，芯片股造好支持美 股创新高。 外 汇 / 商 品 忧虑供应持续过剩和燃料需求疲 弱，周四国际油价 2 连跌。美元汇 价上升，投资者获利回套下，金价 下跌。英伦银行维持利率不变，但 放慢量化紧缩步伐，英镑兑美元下 跌。 固 定 收 益 美国国债承压走低，美国上周首申 失业救济数据引发抛售。亚洲投资 级债券市场情绪坚挺，中国投资级 债券利差收窄 2-5 个基点，TMT 和 国企表现突出。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 19 日 ▪ "十四五" 时期，中国数字经济实现了跨越式发展，成为支撑高质量增长的核心引擎。伴随 5G、工业互联网、 人工智能和数据中心等新型基础设施的快速建设，数字经济总量稳步扩张，"十四五" 规划中设定的主要数量化 目标基本完成，个别指标因最新数 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3,861 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.45% and 0.68%, respectively[14] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.56%, indicating mixed performance in the Hong Kong market[9] - European markets declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the Stoxx 600 index dropping by 1.09%[7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales rose for the third consecutive month in August, exceeding expectations[4] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, reflecting market concerns over potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[24] - International gold prices reached a record high, with spot gold touching $3,703 per ounce[24] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with market anticipation leaning towards a rate cut[4] - U.S. Treasury yields showed a downward trend, with the 10-year yield at 4.03% and the 30-year yield at 4.65%[27] Sector Performance - In the U.S. market, energy stocks rose by 1.73% due to concerns over Russian oil supply disruptions, while utility stocks led declines with a drop of 1.81%[7] - In the A-share market, the real estate sector saw a gain of 1.5%, while financials declined by 0.8%[14] Investment Opportunities - Robinhood launched a new social trading platform, which is expected to enhance user engagement and trading frequency, with a target price of $125 for its stock[6] - The Chinese technology sector is showing optimism, particularly in AI-related stocks, despite potential profit-taking pressures[20]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a potential for further cuts in October and December [14][18][19] - The US job market continues to show signs of weakness, with August non-farm payroll data significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend [12][13] - The technology sector remains a strong investment focus, particularly companies like Zoom and ServiceNow, which are expected to benefit from macroeconomic stability and AI integration [16][19] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has introduced uncertainty in Japanese economic policy, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability [24][26] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current interest rate stance in September but may consider rate hikes in the future due to persistent inflation [29][30] - Japanese stocks are expected to attract continued investment, particularly in companies like Kyocera and JX Metals, as the yen is projected to appreciate [30][33] Group 3: Indonesian Market Focus - The resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani has raised concerns about Indonesia's long-term fiscal outlook, although the new minister, Airlangga Hartarto, aims to maintain fiscal health [46][47] - The Indonesian central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic challenges [47][48] - There is an expectation of strengthened economic cooperation between China and Indonesia, with potential investment opportunities in companies like Pakuwon and Surya Semesta [42][46]

Economic Indicators - The US August CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%[5] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 2.9%, up from the previous 2.7%[5] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, marking the highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve[5][29] Market Performance - US stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones rising 617 points (1.36%) to close at 46,108 points, marking its first time above 46,000 points[9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains of 0.85% and 0.72%, respectively[9] - A-shares experienced significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.65% to 3,875 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.36%[16] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices fell by 2%, with WTI crude closing at $62.37 per barrel due to concerns over OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply[26] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 97.53, reflecting market sentiment towards potential rate cuts[26] - Gold prices slightly declined, with NYMEX gold closing at $3,645.0 per ounce, down 0.2%[26] Sector Highlights - Oracle's (ORCL US) earnings report positively impacted the tech sector, with its cloud infrastructure revenue growing by 55% year-on-year[7] - In the A-share market, technology stocks surged, with some companies in the computing power supply chain seeing increases of over 20%[16] - The healthcare sector faced pressure due to potential regulatory changes, with stocks like Songli Pharmaceutical dropping nearly 20%[11] Bond Market Insights - The US Treasury yield curve flattened, with the 30-year bond auction showing robust demand, indicating market confidence in long-term bonds[29] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 4.02%[29]

环球市场动态 2025 年 9 月 10 日 修 订 货 币 政 策 框 架 可 更 好 应 对 美 国 经 济 形 势 股 票 A 股周二继续回调，科技股表现不 佳；港股录得三连涨，大型科技股 表现突出；欧洲市场涨跌不一，市 场关注欧央行议息；美股继续受到 降息预期推动，标指再创记录新高。 外 汇 / 商 品 美国能源信息管理局表示全球石油 已经开始出现过剩，但中东紧张局 势升温，周二国际油价上涨 0.6%； 投资者关注未来两天将公布的美国 PPI 和 CPI 数据，周二美元指数继 续走高，国际金价高位震荡。 固 定 收 益 美债短端领跌，市场等待 PPI 和 CPI 数据。美国 3 年期国债标售需 求强劲，一级交易商获配比例创新 低。美国截至 3 月的一年非农就业 下修幅度大于预期，支撑降息预期。 亚洲债券利差走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 ▪ 在 2012 年美联储清晰化了双重目标并明确了货币政策框架，2020 年美联储调整了货币政策框架后，2025 年 美联储对于 2020 年设定的框架进行了修订，以使美联储货币政 ...