按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年8月11日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 美国市场焦点 非农大幅下修 引发市场担忧 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 ETF SPDR科技行业 精选指数ETF (2) 韩国市场焦点 央行可能 暂缓降息 股票 初步税制改革提案失望或 为股市造成压力； 重工造船企业 ETF Xtracker MSCI韩国 UCITS ETF (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 维持澳储行年内再降息 两次的预测 股票 看好原材料、科技及 医疗保健行业； Northern Star；Xero ETF iShares安硕MSCI 澳大利亚ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 股票 头部科技股仍最具确定性； 戴尔科技；天弘科技 上周环球 股市表现 9月降息预期大幅拉升，全球股市普遍上涨 | | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% to 3,639 points, reaching a new high for the year[16] - Hong Kong stocks collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.69% to return to 25,000 points[11] - European markets displayed mixed results, with the UK experiencing a decline due to the Bank of England's fifth rate cut within a year[9] Economic Indicators - China's July exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 5.8%[6] - July imports grew by 4.1%, significantly above the expected 0.3%[6] - The trade surplus for July was $98.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%[6] Sector Performance - In the US, technology stocks continued to rise despite poor employment data, while healthcare stocks faced declines due to concerns over drug tariffs[9] - In Hong Kong, gaming stocks surged following strong July revenue from Macau, while pharmaceutical stocks fell due to tariff worries[11] - The UK stock market faced pressure from the Bank of England's rate cut, with the FTSE 100 down 0.7%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International gold prices rose following the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board[4] - Oil prices continued to decline amid geopolitical developments, with traders moving towards Eastern European currencies[4] - The British pound led G-10 currencies after the Bank of England's hawkish rate cut[4] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose due to weak demand for the 30-year bond auction, with the yield at 4.813%[31] - The market is focused on changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with potential implications for interest rates[31] - Asian bond markets showed limited direction, with spreads fluctuating within 2 basis points[5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a three-day rally, with military stocks leading the market; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45%[17] - The Hang Seng Index fluctuated narrowly, closing up 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.2%[12] - European markets mostly rose due to strong corporate earnings, but concerns over potential tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals limited gains, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.06%[10] Economic Outlook - The domestic real estate market is cooling, but the decline in housing prices is not accelerating significantly; investment in real estate is expected to stabilize[6] - The macroeconomic environment shows limited potential risks in the medium to long term, with a possibility of continued bottom recovery if housing prices do not decline further[6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.6%, continuing a downward trend, while the euro gained against G-10 currencies[29] - International oil prices dropped over 1%, with WTI crude oil at $64.35 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical concerns[29] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.23%, amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials[32] - The auction of $42 billion in 10-year Treasuries showed weak demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.35, down from 2.61 in the previous auction[32] Stock Performance Highlights - Equinix (EQIX US) reported better-than-expected earnings, raising its full-year guidance, driven by AI and high-performance computing demand[9] - Apple (AAPL US) announced a commitment to reinvest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing, leading to a stock price increase of over 5%[10] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A balanced allocation between equities and bonds is recommended to manage risk and enhance flexibility; a focus on a barbell strategy in equities is suggested[6] - In the bond market, opportunities for slight interest rate declines under loose liquidity conditions should be monitored[6]

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a weakening labor market[6] - The downward revision of previous months' data totaled nearly 260,000, raising concerns about the quality of non-farm data[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling 1.23% to 43,588.6, the S&P 500 down 1.60% to 6,238.0, and the Nasdaq dropping 2.24% to 20,650.1[11] - European markets also faced significant losses, with the Stoxx 600 index plunging 1.89% amid fears of a global economic slowdown due to new tariffs announced by President Trump[11] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8% to 99.14, while international gold prices rose over 1%[4] - International oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI crude oil down 2.8% to $67.33 per barrel, reflecting concerns over demand growth[31] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant decline, with the 2-year yield dropping 27.5 basis points to 3.68%, as market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged to 90%[34] - Asian bond markets showed weakness, with spreads widening by 1-3 basis points, particularly in the Chinese bond market[34] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors declined, with the consumer discretionary sector leading the losses, down 3.59%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.07%, marking its fourth consecutive decline, with technology stocks underperforming[13]

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年8月4日 每周投资策略 股票 典型的水牛行情特征； 科沃斯；兆易创新 ETF iShares安硕核心 MSCI中国ETF 股票 关注业绩表现； 劳斯莱斯控股；英美烟草 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 中国市场焦点 极端天气较多使 制造业景气有所回落 (2) 英国市场焦点 经济增长出现风险信号， 降息或还将继续 ETF iShares安硕MSCI英国 ETF (3) 印度市场焦点 下半年或仍存在 降息空间 股票 估值偏高伴随 企业盈利下修风险； 关注印度国防支出提升对 本土国防工业的提振 ETF iShares安碩核心 SENSEX印度ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 上周环球 股市表现 特朗普关税叠加非农数据冲击，市场风险偏好急剧降低 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

环球市场动态 极 端 天 气 使 内 地 制 造 业 景 气 回 落 股 票 周四中国市场大跌，AI 股成为唯一 亮点；欧洲股市偏弱，投资者缓慢 消化大量企业财报；美股涨势受阻， 标指回吐 1%涨幅，大型科技股延 续了优异表现。 外 汇 / 商 品 交易者在等待更明确的供需平衡信 号，周四国际油价回落 1%；特朗普 关税大限临近，市场观望情绪浓厚， 美元指数微涨，国际金价微跌；日 本央行维持利率不变，日元领跌 G- 10 货币。 123 ▪ 2025 年 7 月，中国制造业 PMI 为 49.3，较上月回落 0.4 个点；中国非制造业 PMI 为 50.1，较上月回落 0.4 个 点。7 月制造业景气度有所回落，原因可能是 7 月高温、暴雨洪涝等极端天气较多。从结构上看，制造业 PMI 的生产、需求分项均回落，价格分项在反内卷带动下显著回升，但出厂价格和原材料价格的差距扩大或影响下 游利润。从行业看，反内卷初步带来一定分化效应，景气度回升较多的主要是通用设备、有色金属、黑色金属、 金属制品业，而汽车、纺织服装、化学制品等行业景气明显下滑。非制造业方面，7 月非制造业 PMI 较历史同 期差距小幅收窄，主要是服 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - New Oriental Education reported FY25 revenue of $4.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%[1] - Net profit for FY25 was $372 million, up 20% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching $432 million, exceeding expectations by 5%[1] - Adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to economies of scale[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Q4 FY25 education service revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to $1.1 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of 10%-13%[2] - The growth rate of education services has slowed compared to earlier quarters, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 FY25 showing increases of 33.5%, 31.3%, and 21.2% respectively[2] - New business in education grew by 32.5% year-on-year, while overseas exam training and study abroad consulting increased by 14.6% and 8.2% respectively[2] Group 3: Future Guidance - Management expects Q1 FY26 total net revenue to be between $1.46 billion and $1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 5%[2] - FY26 total net revenue is projected to be between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5% to 10%, slightly below market expectations of 8%-12%[2] - A new three-year shareholder return plan was announced, aiming to return at least 50% of profits to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks[2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Concerns arise regarding the growth outlook due to the conservative FY26 guidance, which may affect investor sentiment[4] - The departure of key anchor host Dong Yuhui has negatively impacted the revenue of the Oriental Selection segment, which saw a 39% year-on-year decline in FY25[4] - The current expected P/E ratio for FY26 is 13.52 times[4]

A 股周三涨跌不一，市场情绪整体 偏弱；港股一度大跌后跌幅收窄， 恒科指五连跌；欧洲股市表现分化， 市场观望美联储议息结果；鲍威尔 淡化 9 月降息预期，美国表现平坦， 投资者观望盘后重点企业财报。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 外 汇 / 商 品 环球市场动态 美 联 储 对 关 税 通 胀 态 度 再 转 弯 股 票 特朗普威胁要对印度购买俄罗斯原 油予以惩罚，美国对伊朗实施 2018 年以来最大规模制裁，周三国际油 价上扬超 1%；美联储 9 月降息预 期降温，美元指数上涨 0.9%至两个 月高位；国际金价在跌 0.8%至一个 月低位。美国意外将精炼铜排除在 8 月 1 日开始征收的关税之外，导 致美国市场铜价暴跌 18%。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债小幅回调，收益率上 涨 4-7 个基点。鲍威尔记者会淡化 9 月降息预期。亚洲债市表现混合， 利差在-10 至+2 范围变化；中国投 资级债券变动不大。 2025 年 7 月 31 日 123 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 7 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔发 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the pharmaceutical and communication sectors leading the market[3] - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index fell by 0.15% and 0.34%, respectively, but narrowed their losses in the afternoon[12] - European stock markets rose, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.43%[10] - U.S. stock markets opened high but closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 204 points or 0.46%[10] Currency and Commodities - Concerns over Trump's pressure on Russia and hopes for a tariff agreement boosted oil prices, with WTI crude rising by 3.75% to $69.21 per barrel[27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.26%, reaching a one-month high of 98.886[27] - Gold prices ended a four-day decline, rising by 0.42% to $3,324 per ounce[27] Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury prices rose, with the 7-year note auction attracting strong demand, yielding 4.092%[31] - Asian bond markets showed slow trading but remained firm, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[31] Corporate Highlights - Intel's quarterly earnings exceeded expectations, but the company faces challenges due to tariffs and restructuring costs, leading to lower profit guidance[9] - Digital Realty's Q2 performance surpassed market expectations, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance[9] Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Monetary Authority announced the implementation of a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers starting August 1, with the first licenses expected by year-end[6]

Group 1: US Market Focus - Inflation risks remain high, and the Federal Reserve maintained its stance in July [7][12] - TACO trading continues to be established, with companies like Broadcom and GE Vernova highlighted for their growth potential [15][18] - The impact of tariffs on US importers is significant, with the potential for increased consumer prices in sensitive categories [11][10] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The US-Japan agreement reduces market uncertainty, with tariff reductions benefiting Japanese automakers [27][34] - Companies like Fanuc and Bridgestone are expected to benefit from the lowered tariffs, enhancing their market positions [39][38] - The political landscape in Japan is shifting, with pressures on leadership potentially affecting market stability [31][32] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Economic growth and inflation are expected to slow, supporting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand [45][52] - The Thai stock market has reflected multiple risks, with companies like CP ALL and Central Pattana being monitored for performance [45][54] - The Thai government is negotiating to lower tariffs on exports to the US, which could positively impact trade dynamics [50][51]