宏观数据观察：二季度GDP增长有所放缓，且不及市场预期

Economic Growth - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year, below the expected 5.1% and the previous value of 5.3%[4] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 0.7%, lower than the expected 1.1% and the previous 1.6%[4] Consumer Spending - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.0% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.7%[7] - The decline in consumer spending was attributed to overall consumption slowdown and falling prices, with construction and decoration materials seeing a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%[7] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in June grew by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5% but down from the previous 5.6%[19] - The mining sector saw a growth of 4.4%, while manufacturing increased by 5.5%[19] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to June, fixed asset investment grew by 3.9%, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.0%[20] - Manufacturing investment saw a slight decline to 9.3% year-on-year, down from 9.4%[22] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in June decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2.7 percentage points from the previous value[8] - The sales area of commercial housing fell by 13.8% year-on-year, although the decline was narrower than before[8] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth in June was 4.6%, down from 4.9% previously, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure demand[33] - Despite the acceleration of special bond issuance, the physical workload in infrastructure has not yet materialized[33] Commodity Market Outlook - Short-term domestic demand is weak, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the commodity market, which may exert downward pressure on prices[10] - However, the expectation of improved demand due to policy stimulus in real estate and consumption may support a medium to long-term recovery[10]