商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 李卓雅 彭亚勇 【贵金属】贵金属市场周四夜盘整体下跌，沪金 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 刘慧峰 刘兵 【宏观】 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F031445 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314451 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index initially rose above 100 due to global central banks' inflation - fighting stance and market bets on Fed rate hikes. Later, it weakened as oil prices dropped, and global risk appetite improved. Domestically, the economy and inflation in China from January to February were better than expected, but policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. Short - term market trading focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks and the Fed rate decision. Overall, short - term asset performance is volatile, and caution is advised [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Global Situation**: The US dollar index and US Treasury yields weakened, and global risk appetite improved due to factors such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil and a "pause" in Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. - **Chinese Economy**: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. - **Policy**: The government's work report in 2026 has lower development goals and policy intensity compared to 2025. - **Asset Performance**: Short - term stock indices, government bonds, and most commodities are in a volatile state. The energy - chemical sector is slightly stronger, and short - term cautious operations are recommended [3]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors like precious metals and industrial metals, the domestic stock market fell sharply. In the short term, stock indices will fluctuate due to better - than - expected domestic economic data but intensified geopolitical shocks and a potentially hawkish Fed rate decision. Short - term cautious waiting is advisable [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market declined significantly. Later, as the US dollar weakened, the decline narrowed. Short - term precious metals will fluctuate, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [5][6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets remained weak on Thursday. Although costs have fallen, high oil prices still support costs. Steel inventories have peaked and declined, and production has increased. It is recommended to view the market as range - bound and beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore spot and futures prices fell slightly. Demand may recover slightly, and supply is in the off - season. The short - term upside of iron ore prices is limited, and the risk of a sharp fall after a rise should be noted [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly, and the futures trends diverged. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change, and their futures prices are recommended to be treated with a range - bound mindset [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been in a high - level shock. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. Although copper mines are tight, extreme shortages are unlikely. Refined copper production is growing rapidly, but high prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the non - ferrous metal sector fell sharply. Domestic aluminum supply is rigid, and inventories are accumulating. Overseas supply is tight due to the Middle - East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees have changed, and smelting production is at a relatively high level. Demand is not optimistic, and inventories are accumulating seasonally [10]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead is rising seasonally, while demand has entered the off - season. Inventories at home and abroad are at high levels [11]. - **Nickel**: The core issue is at the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has declined, and the supply of MHP may decrease. Nickel prices have support below but limited upside due to high inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is accelerating, and smelting enterprises are resuming work. Demand is highly differentiated, and inventories are increasing [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led to significant damage to energy facilities, but then the situation showed signs of easing. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed the rise and then fall of oil prices. Terminal demand is showing negative feedback, but low inventories provide short - term support. Supply will remain low, and prices will follow oil price fluctuations [14]. - **PX**: The polyester sector did not follow the sharp rise in oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to downstream negative feedback, but the tight supply situation continues. The future trend depends on oil prices [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fell slightly. Although inventory pressure has decreased, upstream strength has squeezed downstream profits, leading to production cuts. If oil prices remain strong, the cost - driven logic will continue, but negative feedback may limit the upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some port inventories have been pre - sold for export, keeping the price high. Downstream demand is under pressure, but exports may create upside space [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices fluctuate significantly following the energy - chemical sector. Downstream production cuts may limit the upside, but it will remain relatively strong in the short term [16]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market has risen, and port inventories are decreasing. The market is affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the overall pattern is strong, with prices expected to show a pulsed upward trend [16][17]. - **PP**: The price of PP has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply has decreased more significantly, supporting the price. The key factor is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply is tight, and although downstream profit margins are compressed, the price remains firm. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran conflict [18]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has weakened slightly. Port inventories have decreased, and daily production is high. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to return to a range - bound state [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, soybean futures rose slightly. The increase in oil prices has boosted international grain and oil prices. US soybean export sales have decreased [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: In March in China, the arrival of imported soybeans has decreased seasonally, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are decreasing, supporting the price of soybean meal. The expected increase in the supply of rapeseed has suppressed the sentiment of going long on rapeseed meal [19][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, soybean futures in the CBOT rose slightly. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction, while rapeseed oil trading is light, and palm oil prices may be supported by inventory decline [20]. - **Corn**: The sales of corn in production areas have slowed down, and prices are temporarily stable. However, alternative grains and potential rice auctions may limit the price increase and trading sentiment [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig - breeding industry is in a period of capacity adjustment. Although demand is improving marginally, it is still in the off - season. The risk of a further decline in pig prices exists in the short term, and there is also risk in the futures market [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the threat from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to attack multiple energy facilities in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and inflation pressure; the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting had a hawkish tone, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rise and global risk appetite to cool significantly. Domestically, China's economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The government's work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. In the short term, the stock index will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the implementation of the Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index and government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; among commodity sectors, black metals will have a short - term oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals will oscillate in the short term, energy and chemical products will be oscillating and strong in the short term, and precious metals will oscillate in the short term, all requiring a cautious approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the threat to energy facilities and the hawkish Fed led to a rise in inflation and a decline in risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation were better than expected, but policy targets and intensity were lower than in 2025. The stock index will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and policy changes. Assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities will have different short - term trends [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors like communication services, AI, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy and inflation were better than expected from January to February, but due to geopolitical shocks and the hawkish Fed, the stock index will oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market fell sharply. Due to the threat to energy facilities, rising inflation expectations, and the hawkish Fed, the US dollar index strengthened, and precious metal prices weakened. They will oscillate in the short term, and a cautious wait - and - see attitude is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market rebounded slightly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The decline in crude oil prices led to a slowdown in the rise of steel prices. Demand was weak but improving, and supply would remain high. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillating mindset and beware of the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices fell slightly. The daily average pig iron output decreased, but there was an expectation of resumption of production after the Two Sessions. The global iron ore arrival volume decreased, and the shipping volume increased. The short - term upward space of iron ore prices may be limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly, and the futures prices fell. The manganese ore spot was firm. The supply of silicon manganese had a slight change in production capacity utilization, and the downstream demand was recovering. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. Refined copper production has a high growth rate, and downstream demand is suppressed, with inventories accumulating [8]. - **Aluminum**: The non - ferrous sector was weak. Domestic aluminum supply was high, and inventories were accumulating. Overseas supply was tight due to the Middle East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas [8]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fee in some regions rebounded, and the import ore TC decreased. Domestic smelting production was at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover in 2026. Demand was not optimistic, and inventories were accumulating [9]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead increased seasonally, and demand entered the off - season. LME and domestic lead inventories were at high levels [10]. - **Nickel**: The cost supported the MHP price, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia decreased. Nickel prices had strong support below but limited upward momentum. Inventories at home and abroad were at high levels [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin increased as the resumption of production in Myanmar accelerated and smelting enterprises resumed work. Demand was differentiated, and inventories increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate fell. The price of lithium ore decreased, and the social inventory was de - stocked. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fell. It was priced close to the cost, and attention should be paid to the cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fell. The inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iranian oil and gas facilities were attacked, causing the oil price to rise significantly. The short - term oil price will remain strong and volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the rise in oil price. The inventory was low, and the supply was low. The short - term absolute price will fluctuate with the oil price [15]. - **PX**: The PX price was high due to the shortage of naphtha. Although there were some factors suppressing the upward trend, the oil price was the main logic [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price followed the rise in PX, and the inventory pressure decreased. However, the profit of the middle and lower reaches was suppressed, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, but the inventory was high. If exports are used for de - stocking, the price may rise [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the energy and chemical sector to be strongly oscillating. The downstream profit was suppressed, and the inventory increased [17]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market was strong, and the port market had a weakening basis. The supply was worried due to the conflict, and the inventory decreased. The overall pattern was strong [18]. - **PP**: The PP price was sorted out in a small range. The supply decreased, and the price was supported. Attention should be paid to the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was adjusted. The downstream demand was increasing, but the profit was compressed. The supply was tight, and the price was firm [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was weakly adjusted. The daily output was high, and the price was expected to return to an oscillating range [19][20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight soybean price rose. The rise in oil price and the expected biofuel policy supported the price. Attention should be paid to the estimated planting area at the end of the month [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans decreased seasonally, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed was expected to be loose, suppressing the market sentiment [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil price and biofuel policy supported the performance of oils and fats. The palm oil price was supported by increased exports and decreased production. The soybean oil basis was stable, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly down [22]. - **Corn**: The corn price oscillated, and the bullish sentiment slowed down. The increase in imported barley and the release of grain sources limited the upward risk preference [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig industry was in a period of capacity adjustment. The demand was improving marginally but still in the off - season. The price had a sign of stopping falling, and the futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in a range [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US February CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Due to concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, energy prices rose again, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the economy and inflation remaining relatively stable. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. [2] - For assets: The stock index may experience increased short - term volatility, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be in short - term oscillation with an upward bias, and cautious long positions are recommended; precious metals will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as chemicals, batteries, and coal, the domestic stock market has rebounded in the short - term. Fundamentally, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, domestic two - sessions policies, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1151.48 yuan/gram, a 0.37% decline; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21997 yuan/kilogram, a 2.8% decline. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and market expectations of rising interest rates, the price of gold oscillated downward. Spot gold fell continuously during the day and reached an intraday low of 5149.01 US dollars during the US trading session, finally closing down 0.32% at 5175.91 US dollars per ounce; spot silver followed gold down, finally closing down 2.98% at 85.69 US dollars per ounce. Precious metals will oscillate in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the futures price continued to oscillate, with low trading volume. The steel futures did not follow the decline in crude oil but showed some resilience. Ansteel and Bengang announced price policies for April, with plate prices increased by 200 yuan/ton. The actual fundamentals of steel have not improved significantly, and steel and billet inventories remain at high levels. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products rebounded last week, the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. In terms of supply, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased significantly, mainly due to temporary production restrictions during the two - sessions. Future supply will remain at a high level. Recently, cost and macro - logic dominate the steel market, and an interval oscillation approach is recommended. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore prices did not follow the decline in crude oil prices. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to production restrictions in the north during the two - sessions. Given that steel mills still have certain profits and strong production enthusiasm, future demand depends on the resumption of production process. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 4.429 million tons month - on - month this week, and the short - term supply of iron ore is still in the off - season. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for iron ore. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices continued a slight rebound. The spot price of manganese ore remained stable. The semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree and above, the South African high - iron index was quoted at 33 - 35 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon was quoted at 45 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was quoted at 44 yuan/ton - degree, and cml Australian lump was quoted at 45 - 46 yuan/ton - degree. In terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country was 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily output was 27,980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have started to implement procurement tender plans after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of the trader market is also progressing steadily. On March 5, a steel mill in Jiangsu tendered for silicon iron at 5930 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 1000 tons, delivered to the factory with acceptance. Other steel mills are waiting for HBIS's tender. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. [6] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Wednesday, domestic and foreign inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory reached 312,000 tons, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges exceeded 1.2 million tons, hitting a record high. Recently, LME copper and Shanghai copper have oscillated at high levels without a clear direction, and the future trend is uncertain. Technically, the current situation is similar to the months - long oscillation of gold last year. Fundamentally, although it is weak, it is not the main factor of concern for funds, and the macro - situation is the main influencing factor. Future attention should be paid to changes in the US interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, due to the high price of sulfuric acid and the relatively high prices of gold and silver, the overall income of smelters is still guaranteed, so the refined copper output is at the highest level in the same period in history, with a year - on - year increase close to double - digits. The refined copper output in March is expected to reach 1.2 million tons, a record high. [7] - **Aluminum**: Currently, the news is fluctuating, and the market is volatile. Technically, the form has not deteriorated. With the short - term continuation of the Middle - East situation, the aluminum price will still be supported. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support at 24,500 yuan. For the medium - term trend, it is relatively cautious, mainly due to the restart of European aluminum smelters and the high domestic aluminum output. [7] - **Zinc**: In 2026, the supply of zinc concentrate will be further released, with an expected increase of about 300,000 - 400,000 tons. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product income makes up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to significantly boost the demand for zinc, and it may even decline. The domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased seasonally and is currently at a high level; the LME zinc inventory remains at around 100,000 tons, and the overall inventory pressure is not large but has increased significantly compared with the previous period. [8] - **Lead**: In the short - to - medium term, the lead output is at a high level. The demand side is affected by the over - consumption of the trade - in policy, and the peak season has passed, gradually entering the off - season. Since 2026, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to increase, with the fastest inventory accumulation rate in recent years. The inventory reached 73,700 tons, decreased briefly, and then increased again. In terms of absolute inventory level, it still exceeds the same period in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has remained at a high level. [8][9] - **Nickel**: The intensification of the Middle - East conflict has tightened the sulfur supply, and the cost side supports the price of MHP. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement in the future, but the increase is expected to be limited, and a year - on - year decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources allows mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are restricted by its own poor fundamentals. As of March 9, the LME nickel inventory reached 287,418 tons, much higher than the same period in recent years. Since September 2025, the inventory has accumulated rapidly, when it was only 210,000 tons. The domestic inventory is similar. Since September 2025, especially since late September, the inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching the highest level in recent years. [9] - **Tin**: On Wednesday, the LME inventory increased by 590 tons to 8605 tons, the highest level in two years. On the supply side, the smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally, with an increase of 6.61% to 57.99%. With the progress of the pumping process in the tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, full resumption of production will be achieved, and the tin ore output and exports to China will further increase. On the demand side, the industry is highly differentiated. The production and demand of integrated circuits are still growing rapidly, but the traditional consumer electronics industry is in the off - season. China's photovoltaic installation scale in 2026 will decline compared with 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down significantly, and the household appliance production plan in March has continued the decline in February, confirming the over - consumption effect of the previous trade - in policy. As the price has dropped significantly, market transactions have improved, and downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 206 tons to 13,250 tons. In summary, the actual fundamentals have not changed much, and the price decline is due to the ebb of sentiment. In the future, it will still be a game between long - term narratives and weak real - world fundamentals, and the price will continue to be weak in the short - term. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 fell 5.14%, with the latest settlement price of 159,840 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced its position by 3290 lots, and the total position was 625,900 lots. SMM quoted the battery - grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/ton (a 500 - yuan increase month - on - month), and the basis between futures and spot was - 980 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene was 2240 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica was 21 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene was - 855 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and the strong reality persists. It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate at a high level. Do not chase the rise, and patiently wait for opportunities to enter long positions after the price drops. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 0.17%, with the latest settlement price of 8610 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 355,000 lots, an increase of 10,946 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the futures price was at a discount of 580 yuan/ton. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 fell 0.47%, with the latest settlement price of 42,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 55,000 lots, a reduction of 399 lots. The latest N - type re -投料 price from Steel Union was 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the N - type silicon wafer price was 1.05 yuan/piece (unchanged month - on - month), the single - crystal Topcon battery piece (M10) price was 0.415 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month), and the Topcon component (distributed): 210mm price was 0.77 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10,690 lots (an increase of 120 lots month - on - month). The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing rapidly, and the downstream silicon wafer price is dropping rapidly. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly, and short - position holders should be cautious. [13][14] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has generally declined, and the basis of the port methanol market has remained stable. In mid - March, it was 2640 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 40 yuan/ton; in late March, it was 2640 - 2700 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 35/+50; in late April, it was 2670 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 50. The conflict between the US and Iran has eased temporarily, oil prices have fallen, and energy and chemical products have collectively risen and then fallen. The methanol futures price has declined, and the basis is relatively stable, indicating that the spot side still has some support. In the short - term, it is expected to decline, but due to the intertwined long and short factors such as the non - substantial cease - fire of the US - Iran conflict and the non - restart of Iranian methanol plants, the actual progress needs to be monitored. [15] - **PP**: The spot price has been range - bound, strengthening by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 8100 - 8400 yuan/ton. Crude oil has fallen sharply, the geopolitical premium has been reversed, and polypropylene has risen and then fallen. The development of the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and short - term volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. [15] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, and the LLDPE transaction price is 7750 - 8500 yuan/ton. The price of North China LL has increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, the price of East China has increased by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and the price of South China has decreased by 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The crude oil price has risen and then fallen, the cost of polyethylene has loosened, and the price has fallen significantly under the influence of market sentiment. The short - term volatility is severe. Temporarily observe and wait for the end of the price decline, and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict. [16] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market has been generally stable. The supply pressure has continued to increase, and the daily output of urea has remained at a high level of over 220,000 tons. The expectation of resuming production and

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].