海尔智家：引领新质全球化，空间仍可期

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Haier Smart Home with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 30.75 RMB based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [2][4] Core Views - Haier has successfully implemented a global strategy since 2005, transitioning from exports to localized operations and brand management, achieving a 17.2% global market share in major appliances in 2023 [1] - The company has established a "product + capacity + brand" trinity for overseas expansion, with significant market shares in North America (24.8%), Europe, and Australia [1] - Haier's global synergy system, including R&D, procurement, supply chain, and marketing, is expected to drive further overseas growth and improve profitability [1] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 261.4 billion RMB in 2023 to 329.3 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.4% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 16.6 billion RMB in 2023 to 25.3 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.9% [3] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 31.5% in 2023 to 32.0% in 2026, while net margin is expected to rise from 6.3% to 7.7% over the same period [3] Regional Market Analysis - North America remains Haier's largest overseas market, contributing 59% of overseas revenue in 2023, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and market share gains [15][16] - Europe is a key growth area, with Haier planning to enhance the CANDY brand's positioning and expand market share, targeting a 15% revenue CAGR from 2024 to 2026 [47] - Emerging markets in South Asia and Southeast Asia are expected to see strong growth, with revenue projected to increase at a 15% CAGR from 2024 to 2026 [47] Strategic Initiatives - Haier is leveraging its global R&D network, with 10 major R&D centers worldwide, to drive innovation and maintain its leadership in smart home patents [37] - The company is focusing on brand elevation, product innovation, and channel expansion, particularly in Europe and emerging markets, to sustain growth [40][41] - Haier's global supply chain and procurement synergies are expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability, particularly in North America and Europe [38][39]