半导体新一轮景气周期推荐系列之六：TSMC业绩超预期强化AI需求，看好AI芯片的国产替代

Industry Investment Rating - The semiconductor sub-industry is rated as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - TSMC's Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance exceeded expectations, driven by strong AI server and N3/N5 demand [1] - TSMC's Q2 revenue reached $20.82 billion, a YoY increase of 40.1% and a QoQ increase of 13.6%, surpassing the guidance range of $19.4-20.4 billion [1] - TSMC's Q2 net profit was $7.66 billion, a YoY increase of 36.3% and a QoQ increase of 9.9% [1] - TSMC's Q2 gross margin was 53.2%, exceeding the guidance range of 51%-52% [1] - TSMC's Q3 revenue is expected to be between $22.4-23.2 billion, a QoQ increase of 9.5% and a YoY increase of 32% [1] - TSMC's Q3 gross margin is expected to be between 53.5%-55.5%, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - TSMC has raised its full-year revenue guidance to the mid-range of above 20% growth [1] - TSMC's N2 process is progressing smoothly, with mass production expected in 2025, and N2P and A16 expected in H2 2026 [1] - TSMC has increased its full-year capital expenditure to $30-32 billion, with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes, 10-20% to specialty platforms, and 10% to advanced packaging and testing [1] - TSMC expects CoWoS capacity to more than double in 2025, following a similar increase in 2024 [1] - The AI chip industry is accelerating domestic substitution, with significant breakthroughs in chip performance by domestic manufacturers such as Huawei, Cambricon, Kunlunxin, Hygon, and Moore Threads [1] Company Summaries - Hygon Information (688041 SH): Closing price of 78.2 yuan, 2024E EPS of 0.71 yuan, 2025E EPS of 0.95 yuan, 2024E PE of 110, 2025E PE of 82, rated as "Overweight" [3] - Cambricon-U (688256 SH): Closing price of 268.4 yuan, 2024E EPS of -1.55 yuan, 2025E EPS of -0.64 yuan, rated as "Overweight" [3] - Bestechnic (688608 SH): Closing price of 173.5 yuan, 2024E EPS of 2.58 yuan, 2025E EPS of 3.93 yuan, 2024E PE of 67, 2025E PE of 44, rated as "Overweight" [3] - Zhongke Lanxun (688332 SH): Closing price of 56.4 yuan, 2024E EPS of 2.51 yuan, 2025E EPS of 3.61 yuan, 2024E PE of 22, 2025E PE of 16, rated as "Overweight" [3] - GigaDevice (603986 SH): Closing price of 96.0 yuan, 2024E EPS of 1.74 yuan, 2025E EPS of 2.45 yuan, 2024E PE of 55, 2025E PE of 39, rated as "Overweight" [3] - Amlogic (688099 SH): Closing price of 67.4 yuan, 2024E EPS of 1.94 yuan, 2025E EPS of 2.44 yuan, 2024E PE of 35, 2025E PE of 28, rated as "Overweight" [3] - Puya Semiconductor (688766 SH): Closing price of 86.9 yuan, 2024E EPS of 2.39 yuan, 2025E EPS of 4.87 yuan, 2024E PE of 36, 2025E PE of 18, rated as "Overweight" [3] Related Reports - Semiconductor Localization Achieves Initial Success, Mature Process Utilization Leads Globally (2024 07 16) [1] - Chip Companies Release Earnings Pre-announcements, Optimistic About Storage and SoC Growth (2024 07 14) [1] - Autonomous Driving Enters Commercial Promotion Phase, Domestic and International Collaboration Advances (2024 07 10) [1] - Semiconductor Industry Enters M&A and Restructuring Phase, Optimizing Resource Allocation and Improving Competitive Environment (2024 07 09) [1] - Industry Recovery, Multiple Chip Prices Rise Across the Board - Semiconductor Industry Report Series IV (2024 07 07) [1]