中国平安：预计利润回暖，产寿经营稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Ping An (601318) with a target price of 58.98 CNY per share, unchanged from the previous rating [2][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a recovery in investment income, leading to an improvement in net profit on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The operational profit is expected to benefit from the alleviation of asset management impairment pressures and improvements in both life and property insurance sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter turnaround from negative to positive in Q1 2024. The operational profit for the group is expected to grow by 1.4% year-on-year, with life insurance operational profit increasing by 2.5% [4][9]. - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 6.17, 7.57, and 8.77 CNY respectively [4]. Business Segments - The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in H1 2024, primarily due to improvements in the new business value rate, despite a slight pressure on new policies due to a high base from the previous year. The life insurance premium is projected to increase by 5.0% year-on-year, with new policy premiums declining by 5.2% [4][9]. - Property insurance premiums are expected to grow slowly, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in H1 2024. The combined ratio (COR) is anticipated to improve slightly, with a forecasted COR of 99.2% [4][9]. Market Data - The report notes that the stock price has fluctuated between 37.78 and 52.60 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 783.586 billion CNY [5]. - The current price of the stock is 43.03 CNY, indicating potential upside to the target price [2][5]. Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 941.703 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 112.437 billion CNY [9][10]. - The report highlights a projected net asset value per share of 51.64 CNY for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.89 based on the current price [10].