LI AUTO(02015) 德邦证券·2024-07-21 06:01Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix gradually improving through both extended-range and high-voltage pure electric vehicle offerings [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1396.1 billion, 1896.7 billion, and 2423.0 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.35 billion, 12.13 billion, and 18.29 billion [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x, respectively [5] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility with a 1-month absolute gain of 11.17%, a 2-month loss of 17.52%, and a 3-month loss of 31.10% [2] - Relative gains over the same periods were 11.94%, -8.44%, and -39.60%, respectively [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on family users, with products like the L9, L8, L7, and L6 catering to different segments of the family market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and 20,000 deliveries in June 2024 [5] - The company is adjusting its pure electric vehicle strategy, with plans to improve the charging network and focus on user value and operational efficiency [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a full-year GAAP net profit, with a delivery volume of 376,000 vehicles, making it the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to exceed 300,000 annual deliveries [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1238.51 billion, a 173.48% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 22.20%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The company's SG&A and R&D expense ratios were 7.89% and 8.55%, respectively, showing significant optimization compared to peers [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [40] Industry Context - The Chinese MPV market saw a recovery in 2023, with retail sales reaching 1.093 million units, a 15.9% year-over-year increase [27] - The average price of MPVs has risen from 157,000 yuan in January 2018 to 272,000 yuan in May 2024, indicating a shift towards higher-end models [27] - The company is well-positioned in the family vehicle market, with a 91.9% penetration rate among family users in 2023 [34]