LI AUTO(02015) 德邦证券·2024-07-21 06:02Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix that includes both extended-range and pure electric vehicles, catering to different segments of family car needs [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x respectively, based on the closing price on July 19, 2024 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant fluctuations over the past months, with a 1-month absolute increase of 11.17%, but a 2-month decrease of 17.52% and a 3-month decrease of 31.10% [2] - Relative performance shows a 1-month increase of 11.94%, but a 2-month decrease of 8.44% and a 3-month decrease of 39.60% [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on the family luxury market, with a product lineup that includes the L9, L8, L7, and L6 models, each targeting different segments of the family car market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and deliveries exceeding 20,000 units in June 2024 [5] - The company is also developing its pure electric vehicle lineup, with plans to expand its charging network to over 2,000 supercharging stations and 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [5] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 20.08% in 2024, 20.48% in 2025, and 20.88% in 2026 [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments and support long-term growth [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR (Objectives and Key Results) to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [39] Competitive Positioning - The company's L-series models, particularly the L9, L8, and L7, have maintained leading positions in their respective market segments, with the L9 being the best-selling large SUV in 2023 [16] - The company's focus on family-oriented features, such as intelligent driving, intelligent space, and efficient range, has strengthened its brand loyalty and market position [4] Industry Trends - The Chinese MPV market has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 15.9% in 2023, and the average price of MPVs rising from 157,000 yuan in 2018 to 272,000 yuan in 2024 [26] - The "new family car market" in China is expected to enter a rapid development phase from 2024 to 2026, with married family users remaining the main consumer group, accounting for over 65% of the market [34]