CSI Solar(SH:688472) Guohai Securities·2024-07-21 23:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.2 to 1.4 billion yuan for H1 2024, with Q2 net profit projected to be between 620 to 820 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% to 42% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on maintaining stable profit growth in its component business, with a significant increase in shipments to the North American market, which is expected to account for 25% of total shipments in Q2 2024 [3]. - The company is prioritizing profitability over volume by selectively reducing shipments of less profitable solar products, ensuring financial health and steady growth [3]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in energy storage deliveries, with Q2 2024 expected to see over 50% growth compared to Q1, reaching approximately 1.5 GWh [3]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the U.S. market, where local production capacity is advancing rapidly, and profitability from components is expected to remain robust despite potential tariff challenges [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 55.1 billion, 62.5 billion, and 75.6 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.1 billion, 4.3 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report estimates a P/E ratio of 12, 9, and 7 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of 13% to 16% over the forecast period [5][6].