军工行业周报：二十届三中全会之后看军工

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Views - The defense and military index saw a 2.70% increase following the conclusion of the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session, with a notable rise in trading volume [1]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to enhancing national defense and military construction, with a projected military expenditure growth of 7.2% for 2024, maintaining a high growth rate since 2020 [1][14]. - The ongoing reforms in the defense and military sectors are expected to support the long-term healthy development of the military industry, despite short-term disruptions [1][17]. - The clear target for 2027 regarding military construction is anticipated to ensure robust demand for the military industry in the coming years [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the trend towards more systematic, intelligent, and information-based weaponry, aligning with modern warfare's efficiency demands [1][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The defense and military index increased by 2.70%, ranking 3rd among 31 industries, with a trading volume increase of 9.31% [10]. Key Events and Announcements - The 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session emphasized the importance of national defense modernization as a key component of China's modernization strategy [12]. - Various strategic partnerships and agreements were announced, including those related to low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [11]. Insights from the 20th Central Committee's Plenary Session - The government is increasing support for national defense and military construction, with military spending projected at 1.69 trillion yuan for 2024 [14]. - Continuous reforms in the defense sector are expected to positively impact the military industry in the long term [17]. - The 2027 military construction target is set to provide clear guidance for future demand in the military sector [18]. - The focus on systematic, intelligent, and information-based weaponry is expected to drive future developments in military equipment [20]. 2024 Military Industry Half-Year Report Forecast - As of July 19, 2024, 61 companies have released half-year performance forecasts, with 35 expecting a decrease in profits [22]. - The median lower limit for net profit growth is projected at -43.58%, while the second quarter shows a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.26% [23].