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煤炭行业周报:板块逻辑未变,调整即为布局良机
Tebon Securities·2024-07-22 00:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating it is a good opportunity for investment [1]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. The report highlights that coal prices are likely to experience a rebound due to high summer temperatures and increased electricity consumption [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies and infrastructure investments, which are expected to support coal demand in the long term [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal decreased to 846 RMB/ton (-0.70%), while the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 2110 RMB/ton [3][10]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The railway input to Qinhuangdao Port increased by 20.49% to 394,000 tons, while port throughput decreased by 10.06% to 474,000 tons [30][36]. - Inventory Analysis: The inventory at Qinhuangdao decreased by 10.93% to 5.05 million tons, while key coal power plants' inventory decreased by 1.04% [40][42]. 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the market, with the coal index declining by 0.2% compared to a 0.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [51][55]. - The report notes that the coal sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in demand and supply constraints, leading to a potential price increase in the coming months [3][51]. 3. Recent Events - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at enhancing energy security and promoting green energy transitions, which may impact coal supply and demand dynamics [55][59]. - It also highlights the increase in coal exports and imports, indicating a robust international market for coal [55][56].