Group 1: Overseas Economic Insights - U.S. retail data exceeded expectations, with June retail sales flat at 0.0% month-on-month, against a forecast of -0.3%[5] - Core retail sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.0%[5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts in September, with a total of three cuts anticipated by the end of the year[2] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 5.0%, with a second-quarter growth rate of 4.7%, below the expected 5.1%[20] - The industrial sector showed a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in June, exceeding the forecast of 5.0%[28] - Real estate sales in June fell by 13.8% year-on-year, returning to levels seen in 2012[16] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - June's social retail sales growth was 2.0%, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.4%[27] - Online retail sales showed a significant decline of 9.9% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer demand[27] - The manufacturing sector continues to outperform infrastructure and real estate investments, with manufacturing investment growth at 9.5%[29]
宏观周报：海外交易特朗普回归，国内复苏势头减弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2024-07-22 02:30