投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250731 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：7 月 FOMC 整体偏鹰，美元指数反弹 海外方面， 美联储连续五次维持利率不变，7 月声明下调经济增长判断，鲍威尔偏鹰 表态，强调抗通胀优先，未对 9 月降息给出指引；两位理事罕见反对决议，凸显内部分歧， 市场对年内降息次数下调为 1 次、9 月降息预期降至 41%。二季度 GDP 年化环比回升至 3.0%，优于预期 2.4%，受前期囤货效应反转影响进口大减，核心消费动能较 Q1 好转但弱于 去年。关税方面，特朗普宣布 8 月 1 日起，①对韩国征收 15%，换取 3500 亿美元投资及 1000 亿美元能源采购；②对印度加征 25%关税并施加涉俄罚款，对半成品铜等征收 50%关税，引 发美铜暴跌近 20%；③对巴西商品总税率升至 50%，豁免飞机能源等领域，7 天后生效；④ 暂停对低价值货物的最低限度免税待遇。美国经济超预期、FOMC 偏鹰及关税进展主导市场 情绪，美元指数逼近 100，美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The global trade situation is stabilizing with positive progress in tariff negotiations between the US and its major trading partners, which has led to a decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. Different commodities are expected to show various trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Tariff negotiations have made progress. The US and China plan to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine agreement deadline and threatened to raise taxes on Russia, causing oil prices to soar. India postponed concessions and aims to reach an agreement with the US in September - October. The US labor market is cooling but remains robust. The US 6 - month job openings dropped to 7.437 million, and the hiring rate fell to 3.3%. - Domestic: Market sentiment is positive, actively speculating on policy expectations. Commodity fluctuations have intensified. A - shares opened lower and closed higher with heavy trading volume. The bond market significantly adjusted under pressure. In the long - term, social security policies are expected to ease over - capacity and involution problems, and domestic demand policies may continue to strengthen. In the short - term, beware of market adjustments after the fading of sentiment and the realization of policy benefits [2][3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 2.08% to $3383 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The market is concerned about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed meeting. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The EU may purchase 40 billion euros of AI chips in the US - EU trade agreement. The US labor market data is weak, and the trade deficit has narrowed. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but is highly concerned about its policy outlook. If more Fed members support a rate cut in September, it may boost gold prices. Short - term gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [4][5][6]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper sought support at the $9700 level. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved slightly, and domestic trade copper rose to a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade talks made positive progress, and the IMF significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year to 4.8%. The market is concerned that the US may impose a 50% copper import tariff starting from Friday. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are at a low level. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound in the short - term [7][8]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, SHFE aluminum closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and LME aluminum closed at $2606 per ton, down 0.95%. The spot market supply has slightly increased, but consumer buying willingness is still low due to high - price concerns and the off - season. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The spot alumina national average price rose to 3267 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price increased to $379 per ton. A strike occurred at the Friguia alumina plant in Guinea, affecting production. The deliverable alumina supply is limited, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased to a new low. Alumina's downward trend has slowed, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, SHFE zinc showed narrow - range fluctuations, and LME zinc stabilized. The downstream buying willingness is low, and the spot market maintains a small premium. The Sino - US trade negotiations have not made a major breakthrough. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic important meetings. Although heavy rain in the north has not affected galvanizing plant production, terminal demand is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [14][15]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, SHFE lead showed narrow - range fluctuations. Heavy rain in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has affected raw material transportation. The supply shortage in some areas has slightly improved. The supply is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and consumer demand has changed little. It is expected that lead prices will consolidate horizontally in the short - term [16][17]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, SHFE tin was volatile. The rainy season in Myanmar may disrupt tin ore transportation, intensifying the shortage of raw material supply. Domestic refined tin smelter operations have marginally improved but remain at a low level. The off - season for downstream consumption continues, and high - price buying is insufficient. Domestic inventories have increased, but LME inventories are at a low level. It is expected that tin prices will adjust, but the adjustment range will be limited [18]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract continued to rebound. The spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 silicon has a premium over the 2509 contract. The warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously declining. The supply side is contracting, and the demand side is affected by various factors. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rebound in the short - term [19][20]. 3.10 Steel and Iron - **Screw and Coil**: On Tuesday, steel futures rebounded. The Sino - US trade negotiations reached a consensus to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The macro - situation is positive, and supply is expected to shrink in mid - August due to parade - related production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore futures rebounded. Port inventories decreased, mainly due to reduced arrivals and resilient steel mill purchases. Steel mills are profitable, and iron ore supply remains stable. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate and rebound [23]. 3.11 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is favorable, increasing the expectation of high yields. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. China mainly purchases South American soybeans recently, and there is a concern about supply shortage in the fourth quarter. It is expected that domestic soybean meal futures will stop falling and fluctuate [24]. - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade tariff quotas. India may increase imports due to low inventories and holiday demand. Crude oil prices have risen. It is expected that palm oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. 3.12 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., on July 29 [27]. 3.13 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, etc., such as contract prices, warehouse receipt inventories, spot prices, and price differentials between different dates [28][31][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade situation is stabilizing as the US reaches trade agreements with major economies, leading to a high - risk appetite in the market, a stronger US dollar index, record - high US stocks, and price adjustments in various commodities [2][4]. - In China, the introduction of a parenting subsidy system is expected to boost rural birth rates and consumption. Market sentiment has shifted after the exchange introduced risk - control measures, and prices are back to being driven by fundamentals. There is a need to be vigilant about short - term market adjustments and to focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs and keep global tariffs at 15 - 20%. The US and China are negotiating to extend the tariff and export - control truce for 90 days. Many countries are seeking tariff concessions from the US. The US is increasing pressure on Russia, causing oil prices to rise by over 2% [2]. - Domestic: The central government has introduced a parenting subsidy system, with each child receiving 3600 yuan per year until the age of 3. Market sentiment has changed after the exchange's risk - control measures, and the stock market is experiencing a volume - shrinking shock. There is a need to be cautious about short - term market adjustments and focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices continued to decline on Monday. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and China, and the US - EU new trade agreement has alleviated trade - war concerns. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but anticipates a possible rate cut in September. Short - term precious - metal prices are expected to be weak, but the downside is limited [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, and the London copper faced resistance at the 10,000 - dollar mark. The market expects that Chile may get a copper - tariff exemption from the US, causing a significant drop in US copper prices. First Quantum's copper production in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. The copper price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade talks [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the London aluminum was flat. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar index, and the aluminum social inventory increased. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and inventory trends should be monitored [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures decreased significantly. The market sentiment continued to decline, and the futures contract saw a large - scale reduction in positions. The supply is stable recently, and the consumption side is cautious. Alumina is expected to be in a stalemate and fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the fundamentals remained weak. High prices inhibited downstream purchases, and inventories increased. The zinc price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade talks and domestic policies [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The supply of lead is increasing marginally, but the consumption improvement in the peak season is insufficient, and inventories have slightly increased. The lead price is under pressure but supported by costs, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the consumption in the off - season was poor. The supply increased while the demand was weak, and inventories increased for two consecutive weeks. The tin price is expected to adjust at a high level, but the adjustment space is relatively limited [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined significantly. The supply is in a contraction trend, and the demand is weak overall. The futures price is expected to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the carbonate - lithium futures price was weak, while the spot price rose significantly. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and the short - term price is mainly driven by sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated. The tariff risk is cooling down, but the domestic anti - involution policy is still uncertain. The terminal market is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and domestic policies need to be monitored [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day and opened higher at night. The acceleration of sanctions against Russia and the improvement of the macro - sentiment are pushing up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Spot trading declined, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron - ore futures fluctuated at a high level. Overseas shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. The demand remains resilient, and the market is in a weak balance. The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, bean and rapeseed meal futures declined. The good growth conditions of US soybeans, Argentina's reduction of soybean export tax rates, and the increase in domestic bean - meal inventories are factors affecting the market. The domestic bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm - oil futures rose, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July, and the export demand decreased. The palm - oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US and the EU reached an agreement, with the US imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the previously threatened rate, avoiding an escalation of the trade war. The EU promised to invest about $600 billion in the US and significantly increase purchases of US energy and military products. Sino-US high-level meetings will be held in Stockholm on Monday to extend the August 12 tariff "ceasefire" agreement by 90 days. With the tariff paths of many countries becoming clearer, market risk appetite has slightly increased [2]. - Domestic: The current market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The positive sentiment brought by supply - side optimization policies is still evolving. A - shares once broke through the 3600 - point mark, and trading volume and margin trading balances increased. In June, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed to - 4.3%, mainly driven by the automotive industry. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment, policy outcomes, and tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - US 7 - month Manufacturing and Services PMI Differentiation: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, weaker than expected and below the boom - bust line. The services PMI reached a new high this year at 55.2. Tariffs and high prices were reported to suppress demand [5]. - ECB's July Decision: On July 24, the ECB announced a pause in interest rate cuts after eight consecutive cuts, maintaining the main interest rate at 2.00%. The market's expectation of a September rate cut dropped below 30% [7]. Asset Performance - Equity: Most equity indices showed positive performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33% last week, and the Hang Seng Index rose 5.47% [9]. - Bond: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds showed different trends. For example, the 1 - year domestic treasury bond yield rose 3.38 BP last week, while the 5 - year US treasury bond yield fell 1.00 BP [12]. - Commodity: The performance of commodities was mixed. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% last week, while WTI crude oil fell 1.48% [14]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell 0.80% last week, and the euro - to - RMB exchange rate rose 0.73% [16]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data such as the congestion index, subway passenger volume, and real - estate transaction volume are presented through charts [18]. - Overseas: Data on red - book retail sales, unemployment claims, and US treasury bond spreads are shown [22]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data and events are scheduled this week, including US GDP, employment data, and euro - zone economic sentiment indices [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore supply remains abundant, and the high - frequency supply stays at a high level driven by prices. The lithium salt market has a cold trading atmosphere, and downstream players doubt the sustainability of high - priced lithium. However, policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission have led to concerns about supply disruptions, causing prices to rise without obvious fundamental improvement [4]. - On the disk, driven by relevant policies and rumors, the positions expanded significantly to nearly 500,000 lots during the reporting period, while the exchange warehouse receipts were more than 10,000. The risk of the virtual - to - real ratio is high, and the position risk expectation rises [4]. - With policy guidance, lithium prices may still have room to rise. Policy - wise, the decision - making layer’s determination to address the "involution" phenomenon boosts market sentiment. On the disk, despite the false news of the suspension of the review of Jiangxi lithium mines, the positions increased significantly, and the market sentiment remained strong. Fundamentally, the upstream has a strong production - increasing expectation driven by high prices, while the downstream has a weak willingness to replenish inventory actively. The lithium market is expected to be guided by policy expectations, and prices may fluctuate strongly [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 6.91%, 4.83%, and 4.83% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose by 15.09%, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 100%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.14% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of July 25, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipt scale was 11,996 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 491,000 lots [8]. - The weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons as of July 25, an increase of 235 tons from the previous period. Rumors of the suspension of the review of Jiangxi lithium mines led to concerns about resource disruptions, causing lithium prices to rise and positions to expand by more than 100,000 lots. Driven by high prices, upstream supply will remain high [8]. - In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a decrease of 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. The import volume from Chile and Argentina decreased. In June, the shipment volume from Chile to China increased slightly, but it was still at a low level [9]. - In May, the import volume of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a decrease of 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume from Australia and South Africa increased, while that from Zimbabwe decreased significantly [10][11]. - In terms of downstream demand, the prices of cathode materials increased, but the trading was general. Material factories were still waiting and watching high - priced lithium, and the willingness to stock up was not high. In the new energy vehicle market, the consumption growth rate slowed down, and the potential consumption needs to be explored [12][13]. - As of July 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 119,616 tons, a decrease of about 1,374 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory and market inventory decreased, while the exchange inventory increased [14]. This Week's Outlook - With policy guidance, lithium prices may still have room to rise. Policy - wise, the draft amendment to the Price Law boosts market sentiment. On the disk, the market sentiment remains strong. Fundamentally, the upstream has a strong production - increasing expectation, while the downstream has a weak willingness to replenish inventory actively. The lithium market is expected to be guided by policy expectations, and prices may fluctuate strongly [15]. Industry News - Argentina rejected Ganfeng Lithium's application for the second - phase expansion of the Mariana project. Meanwhile, Galan's lithium project was approved [16]. - Yongxing Materials responded that its production and operation were normal, without production reduction or suspension [16]. - Yichun Yinli plans to stop production for equipment maintenance to reduce costs and ensure safety [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 13.25 to close at 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%; the September bean meal contract fell 35 to close at 3021 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%; the September rapeseed meal contract dropped 47 to close at 2675 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.54% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated downward. The weather, including precipitation and temperature, was generally suitable, and recent forecasts were favorable for crop growth and development. Although the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was revised down, it was at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The U.S. reached trade agreements with countries such as Japan and the Philippines, alleviating market concerns about trade, improving expectations for China - U.S. trade negotiations, and potentially facilitating the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. In China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced measures to control pig production capacity, promote low - protein technology, and reduce the substitution of bean meal. The bullish sentiment subsided, and there was a significant reduction in positions to take profits, leading to the week - long oscillation and decline of the Dalian bean meal futures [4][7]. - The cumulative precipitation forecast for the U.S. soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks is higher than the average, and the recent high - temperature weather will subside by the end of the month. The overall situation is relatively good, which may lay the foundation for high soybean yields. The U.S. has reached trade agreements with countries such as the Philippines, Japan, and Europe. The China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations in Sweden are imminent, and the market has improved expectations, which may be beneficial for the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. The domestic bean meal inventory level continues to increase, and there is still pressure on the spot market. After the bullish funds cash in on their profits, they are waiting for guidance from the negotiation results. In the short term, the Dalian bean meal may fluctuate widely [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean futures price dropped from 1035.00 to 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased from 472.00 to 473.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.21%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased from 458.00 to 459.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.22%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from - 17.41 to - 45.24 yuan per ton [5]. - The DCE September bean meal contract price fell from 3056.00 to 3021.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%. The CZCE September rapeseed meal contract price dropped from 2722.00 to 2675.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%. The price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 334.00 to 346.00 yuan per ton [5]. - The East China bean meal spot price fell from 2900.00 to 2870.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.03%, while the South China spot price rose from 2850.00 to 2880.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%. The spot - futures price difference in South China increased from - 206.00 to - 141.00 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, and the previous week was 70%, the same as last year's 68%. The flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% the previous week, compared with 63% last year and a five - year average of 63%. The pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% the previous week, compared with 27% last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the U.S. soybean - planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% last year [8]. - As of the week of July 17, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 16.1 tons, compared with 27.2 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 5081 tons, basically achieving the annual target. The net export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 24 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 261 tons, compared with 290 tons last year [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 2.58 dollars per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 257.28 dollars per short ton, equivalent to 5.98 dollars per bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to 6.63 dollars per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.28 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.23 dollars per bushel last week [9]. - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in July would be 1211 tons, and the bean meal exports would be 240 tons [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 642.24 tons, a decrease of 15.25 tons from the previous week but an increase of 31.04 tons compared with last year. The bean meal inventory was 99.84 tons, an increase of 11.22 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 26.22 tons compared with last year. The unexecuted contracts were 496.23 tons, a decrease of 52.57 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8.05 tons compared with last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 797.9 tons, a decrease of 25.2 tons from the previous week but an increase of 54.33 tons compared with last year [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average daily trading volume of national bean meal was 13.852 tons, including 8.262 tons of spot trading and 5.59 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily trading volume was 13.254 tons. The average daily delivery volume of bean meal was 18.842 tons, compared with 18.524 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 223.89 tons, compared with 230.55 tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 8.19 days, compared with 8.26 days the previous week [10]. Industry News - According to the FAO's "Agricultural Outlook 2025 - 34", by 2034, the soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean - producing country, is expected to see its soybean production grow at an annual rate of 0.8%, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the second - largest producer, the U.S. The soybean production in other South American regions is expected to grow strongly. By 2034, the soybean production in Argentina and Paraguay will reach 5600 tons and 1300 tons respectively. The global soybean production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1%, compared with 2.2% in the past decade. About 80% of the production growth will be contributed by the increase in yield [12]. - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that in the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 7,436,819.48 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 531,201.39 tons, a 9% increase compared with the average daily export volume of 489,127.13 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 11,249,924.00 tons [12]. - The IMEA announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 to July 18 was 441.52 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 443.58 Brazilian reals per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1499.39 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6037.16 Brazilian reals per ton [13]. - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 season were 9 tons, compared with 20 tons last year. The EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 52 tons, compared with 77 tons last year. The EU's bean meal imports in the 2025/2026 season were 100 tons, compared with 111 tons last year [13]. - The AAFC adjusted key data in its July supply - demand report. It adopted the latest rapeseed production data for the 2024/2025 season released by Statistics Canada, significantly increasing the production forecast to about 1919 tons, compared with the previous forecast of 1785 tons. The export expectation of old - crop rapeseed was also raised to 950 tons. Looking forward to the 2025/2026 season, the AAFC lowered the rapeseed production forecast by 20 tons to 1780 tons, based on a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the 2.17 tons per hectare last year [13]. - From August 2024 to May 2025, Russia's rapeseed meal exports increased by 32% year - on - year to about 56.7 tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and Turkey. Due to the EU's import tariffs on Russian rapeseed meal, Russian exporters turned to the Asian market. China's imports of Russian rapeseed meal increased from 10,000 - 20,000 tons per month to 30,000 - 50,000 tons per month. China's total imports of Russian rapeseed meal from August 2024 to May 2025 were 24 tons, compared with 11.2 tons in the same period last year. Turkey's imports also doubled to 10.1 tons, with 93% coming from Russia [14]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in June was 4055149 tons, the soybean oil production was 788210 tons, and the bean meal production was 3021082 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3515877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283900 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 814862 tons [14]. - A commodity research report predicted that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season would be 570 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous expectation. The production forecast was lowered mainly because the yield forecasts in New South Wales and Victoria were reduced due to recent droughts that were unfavorable for crop growth [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the bean meal main contract, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean - producing areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - season U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the weekly average daily trading volume and delivery volume of bean meal, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills, the bean meal inventory in oil mills, and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 40 to close at 4,276 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.93%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 to close at 8,936 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 to close at 8,144 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 to close at 9,457 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.35%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.34 to close at 55.92 cents/pound, an increase of 0.61%; the ICE canola active contract rose 1 to close at 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.14% [3][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated slightly lower, with rapeseed oil performing the weakest. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, low ending inventory, and potential Indian import demand support palm oil. The continuous expansion of US crushing capacity and expected increase in biodiesel demand boost the soybean oil market. The good rapeseed production prospects in Canada and the EU suppress rapeseed oil. Malaysian palm oil production continued to increase in July, with exports weakening month - on - month, limiting the space for continuous rise, and more long - position funds taking profits, resulting in an overall volatile operation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, after the US reached trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and other countries, it difficultly reached a tariff agreement with the EU, alleviating market concerns about trade sentiment. China and the US will hold economic and trade negotiations in Sweden. The US stock market fluctuated strongly, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices fluctuated narrowly. Fundamentally, although supported by the medium - and long - term growth expectations of biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production of Malaysian palm oil and weakening demand may limit the increase in the short term. Palm oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report presents the prices, price changes, and price change rates of multiple contracts (CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil) from July 18th to July 25th, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and their changes [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Production Data**: According to UOB, as of July 20th, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 5 - 9%. MPOA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, production increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, 2025, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and palm oil production increased by 6.19% [7]. - **Export Data**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25th decreased by 9.2% compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data shows a 15.22% month - on - month decrease. SGS data shows a 35.99% decrease in exports from July 1 - 20th compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased significantly in May and June, with exports to India and China rising strongly. MPOB expects Malaysia's palm oil production and exports to increase in 2025, while GAPKI expects Indonesia's exports to decline [8][9]. - **Inventory and Demand Data**: As of July 18th, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions increased. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased slightly. Although there is long - term support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production and weakening demand of Malaysian palm oil may limit price increases in the short term [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The FAO's "2025 - 34 Agricultural Outlook" points out that due to sustainability issues and the aging of oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, the growth rate of global palm oil production is expected to slow, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.8% [11]. - India has become Malaysia's largest importer of oil palm seeds, and its demand for Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly. MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit next month, and India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in the third quarter to meet festival demand [11][12]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025, as the IEU - CEPA agreement and the US tariff reduction policy will create opportunities for Indonesian exports [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, exports, inventory, and import profits of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [13][18][21] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly. Optimistic macro - sentiment has been digested, overseas squeeze - out risk has decreased, and approaching important domestic and Fed meetings led to profit - taking by funds, resulting in a slight correction of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, awaiting macro guidance [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the focus is on overseas squeeze - out disturbances. The domestic fundamentals remain weak, with stable zinc ore production, rising processing fees, high production loads of refined zinc smelters, and slow inventory accumulation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,295 yuan/ton on July 18th to 22,885 yuan/ton on July 25th, an increase of 590 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2,824 dollars/ton to 2,829 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.89 to 8.09, an increase of 0.19 [5]. - As of July 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 4,789 tons to 59,419 tons. As of July 24th, social inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 9.83 million tons [5][7]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc ZN2509 rebounded strongly and then adjusted slightly, closing at 22,885 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.65%. LME zinc broke through the 2,800 dollars/ton level, then its upward trend slowed down, closing at 2,829 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.18% [6]. - In the spot market, zinc price rebounds led to weakened downstream purchasing power, and spot premiums remained weak. There was inventory accumulation in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin due to normal arrivals and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - In the macro - aspect, the US manufacturing PMI fell into contraction, but overall business activity expanded rapidly. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased for the sixth consecutive week, and the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, and the September interest - rate cut expectation dropped sharply [8][9]. 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,950 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton; the average imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 55.97 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.65 dollars/dry ton [12]. - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land, and its zinc mine operation will shut down at the end of 2025, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate production [12]. - Teck Resources' Dog mine shipping season started on July 11th, and the quarterly Red Dog zinc concentrate sales volume was 3.51 [12]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the second quarter of 2025 was 56,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. South 32's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 was 10,600 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 39% [13]. - In June, the imported zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%. The cumulative imported zinc concentrate from January to June was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74%. The imported refined zinc in June was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. The cumulative imported refined zinc from January to June was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. The exported galvanized sheet in June was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative exported galvanized sheet from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.23%. The exported die - cast zinc alloy in June was 622.15 tons, a month - on - month increase of 268.8%, and the cumulative exported die - cast zinc alloy from January to June was 2,979.8 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.06% [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, internal - external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].