Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, despite facing strong headwinds from dealers [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to remain profitable in the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit of RMB 43 million, despite a forecasted 8% decline in new car sales year-on-year [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slight recovery in margins in FY25 due to the elimination of convertible bond burdens and the introduction of new electric vehicle models by BMW [2][3]. - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 4.00 to HKD 3.00, based on a revised earnings multiple of 10 times the estimated FY25 earnings per share [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 1H24, new car sales are expected to decline to 29,200 units, with a significant drop in average selling prices by 13% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is projected to decrease by 15% year-on-year, while gross profit is expected to decline by 11% [2][3]. - The net profit for FY25 is estimated at RMB 360 million, reflecting a 52.9% decrease from previous estimates [7][8]. Sales and Profitability - The report indicates that the gross margin for new cars is expected to drop to -3.7% in 1H24, marking a historical low [2][3]. - Despite a decrease in service volume, after-sales service revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with Porsche contributing a larger share [2][3]. Market Position - The market share of the company in Porsche sales in China is expected to increase from 16% in 2H23 to 17% in 1H24, despite a 39% decline in Porsche's overall sales [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in sales targets by foreign automakers, which may lead to improved margins in FY25 [2][3].
美东汽车：我们预计 1H24 仍将盈利