房地产对调降LPR的点评：LPR下调，实际利率为锚

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The recent adjustment of the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) by the central bank, lowering the 5Y rate to 3.85%, is the second reduction this year, indicating a moderate approach to monetary policy [3][4] - The report highlights that the impact of the LPR reduction will be more significant on existing loans rather than new ones, as previous measures have already adjusted the rates for new home purchases [4] - The actual interest rates remain relatively high, suggesting there is still room for further reductions in actual mortgage rates, which could stimulate demand [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The LPR for both 1Y and 5Y has been adjusted down by 10 basis points, reflecting a cautious stance from the central bank [4] - The report emphasizes that the current high actual interest rates necessitate low leverage for real estate companies, recommending firms like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China New Group [4] - The report also notes the potential for increased early repayments due to the widening gap between new and existing mortgage rates [4] Company Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the real estate sector have been rated as "Overweight" with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E: - Vanke A: 2023A EPS 1.02, 2024E EPS 0.74, 2025E EPS 0.82 [5] - Poly Developments: 2023A EPS 1.01, 2024E EPS 0.95, 2025E EPS 1.01 [5] - China Merchants Shekou: 2023A EPS 0.70, 2024E EPS 0.79, 2025E EPS 0.85 [5] - China New Group: 2023A EPS 0.91, 2024E EPS 0.92, 2025E EPS 0.99 [5] - Binjiang Group: 2023A EPS 0.81, 2024E EPS 0.98, 2025E EPS 1.10 [5]