美妆、零售板块周报0722：Q3海外零售步入旺季，亚马逊会员日销售同增11%

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Q3 marks the peak season for overseas retail, with Amazon's Prime Day sales increasing by 11% year-on-year [1][15] - The report emphasizes the structural differentiation within the retail sector, with a focus on high-growth opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and cosmetics [5][10] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The overseas retail sector is entering a peak season, with a focus on high-growth cross-border e-commerce [10] - Companies like Saiwei Times, Zhiou Technology, and Anker Innovation are highlighted as key players in the cross-border e-commerce space [10] Weekly Topic: Amazon Prime Day Performance and Tariff Impacts - Amazon's Prime Day, held on July 16-17, 2024, is projected to generate $14.2 billion in sales, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [15][20] - The event saw significant sales growth in categories such as back-to-school products (+216%) and children's clothing (+165%) [21] - Concerns regarding potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. have emerged, prompting some sellers to consider relocating their supply chains to Southeast Asia [22][24] Company Announcements and News Review - Notable company announcements include Pop Mart's positive earnings forecast, expecting a revenue increase of no less than 55% for H1 2024 [4] - The report notes that the retail sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2024 [4] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the cosmetics sector, such as Juzhibio and Perleya, are projected to see significant profit growth, with Juzhibio's net profit estimates for 2024-2026 revised upwards to 1.894 billion, 2.422 billion, and 3.010 billion respectively [12][13] - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong overseas expansion plans, such as Miniso, which is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales and successful overseas store openings [5][10]