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宏观点评:不一样的降息,有何深意?
Tebon Securities·2024-07-22 08:30

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70%, indicating a clear intention to reduce interest rates[1] - The LPR for both 1-year and over 5-year terms has been reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with the reverse repo rate cut[1][19] Market Implications - The reduction in the reverse repo rate is expected to lead to a decrease in the funding rate DR007, likely falling to 1.70%, down from 1.80%[7] - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from this rate cut, although long-term bond yields may face upward pressure if credit expansion occurs[7][30] Economic Context - The adjustment in monetary policy is a response to macroeconomic pressures, including weak credit demand and low prices, aiming to stabilize economic growth[6][4] - The PBOC's decision reflects a shift in focus from quantity to price in its market operations, emphasizing the importance of interest rate adjustments[3][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased borrowing operations and adjustments in the scale and pace of bond issuance, which could influence interest rates in the medium to long term[8][30] - The RMB exchange rate may experience depreciation pressure due to the PBOC's rate cut, but significant devaluation is not anticipated, with expectations that it will remain below 7.34[21]