食品饮料行业周报：行业有望筑底反弹，关注中长期配置价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting its potential for mid-to-long-term value [1][28]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to rebound, with a notable performance in the past week, where the sector gained 3.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.96 percentage points [1][28]. - Key sub-sectors such as processed foods (+5.97%), liquor (+3.72%), and dairy products (+3.07%) showed strong growth, indicating structural investment opportunities in leading companies with robust risk resilience and performance certainty [1][28]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands, despite short-term demand weaknesses and price fluctuations [1][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From July 15 to July 19, the food and beverage index rose by 3.33%, ranking second among 31 sectors, with processed foods, liquor, and dairy leading the gains [8][28]. 2. Price Fluctuations - Recent price trends show a slight decline in the prices of premium liquor brands, while other raw materials like barley are entering a downward price cycle, which may enhance profit margins for beer companies [15][29]. 3. Industry News - Retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 503 billion yuan in June, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative growth of 10% in the first half of the year [23][28]. - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including new product launches and expansions by established brands, indicating a dynamic market environment [23][24]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, highlighting expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) for major players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [31].