Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing significant sales growth, with excavator sales in September 2025 reaching 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,249 units (up 21.5%), while exports reached 10,609 units (up 29%) [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, marking an 18.1% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales were 89,877 units (up 21.5%), and exports were 84,162 units (up 14.6%) [5] - Loader sales in September 2025 totaled 10,530 units, reflecting a 30.5% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales were 5,051 units (up 25.6%), and exports were 5,479 units (up 35.3%) [5] - The report highlights that the industry is benefiting from a new round of concentrated replacement cycles and the commencement of large projects, such as the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project, which is expected to boost domestic demand [5] - The overseas market is also showing structural growth, particularly in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, driving export demand [5] - Leading companies are enhancing their global market share through "technology upgrades and globalization," indicating strong medium to long-term growth momentum [5] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In September 2025, excavator sales reached 19,858 units, with domestic sales of 9,249 units and exports of 10,609 units [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, total excavator sales were 174,039 units, with domestic sales of 89,877 units and exports of 84,162 units [5] - Loader sales in September 2025 were 10,530 units, with domestic sales of 5,051 units and exports of 5,479 units [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with a well-established global presence, including XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), LiuGong (000528.SZ), Shantui (000680.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), and Zhongji United (605305.SH) [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended" [2][27]. Core Views - The performance of the liquor sector during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was in line with market expectations, with an overall sales decline of 20%-30% [24][28]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-industries with high growth potential and lower valuations after recent corrections [27][29]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index falling by 0.29%, ranking 27th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][27]. - Sub-industries such as dairy (+1.13%), condiments (+0.74%), and meat products (+0.60%) showed positive growth, while other liquor categories saw declines [14][27]. Liquor Industry Insights - The report indicates that high-end liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall market downturn [24][28]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the overall financial performance of the liquor sector as it enters the third-quarter reporting period [28]. Consumer Goods Sector - The soft drink and snack sectors maintain a high level of market vitality, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjinpuzi showing growth potential [29]. - The report highlights that the soft drink category is a necessity for daily outings, suggesting resilience in growth during holiday periods [29]. Key Company Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye for their stable performance in the high-end liquor market [28]. - It also recommends attention to regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu for their resilience [28]. Price Fluctuations - Recent price movements for key liquor products include an increase in the price of Feitian Moutai, with the price per bottle rising from 1760 RMB to 1765 RMB for loose bottles and from 1780 RMB to 1795 RMB for packaged bottles [19][21]. - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while other commodity prices such as sugar and soybeans showed slight fluctuations [21][21]. Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage is in the process of issuing H-shares and has updated its listing application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [24][29]. - Guangzhou Restaurant reported a 1.75% increase in mooncake sales compared to the previous year, with total sales reaching 13.98 million boxes [26]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 74.38 RMB in 2025, while Dongpeng Beverage is expected to reach 8.51 RMB [30][31]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with Moutai at 19.2 and Dongpeng at 36.6 [30].

证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 24 日 乘用车企拐点将至，关注汽零强势赛道&客户 ——汽车行业2025 年半年报综述 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 商用车基本面改善，人形机器人估值修复。2025 年初至 8 月，申 万汽车板块涨跌幅+22.10%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 7.83pct。商用车 及汽车零部件板块取得超额收益。其中商用车主要系客车以及重 卡销量同比表现转好，带动板块估值修复；基于汽车与人形机器 人零部件的相似性和协同性，汽车零部件板块多家公司布局人形 机器人业务，板块走势受到人形机器人产业进展影响。在特斯拉 等头部厂商的量产指引、新品发布预期等消息的催化下，汽车零 部件板块 Q3 走势较强。 分析师：杨阳 分析师：李浩洋 相关阅读 价格战压制盈利能力，Q3 板块拐点将至。行业方面，2025Q2 乘 用车板块实现营收同环比+10.4%，高于并表销量端的同比+9.0%， 营收增速高于销量端，主要系 Q2 自主车企高端车型上市销售拉 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 22 日 白酒深度调整，大众品关注低估值的行业龙头 ——食品饮料行业周报 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 相关阅读 饮料行业周报》2025.09.09 《中报圆满收官，关注基本面稳健的标 的—食品饮料行业周报》2025.09.01 《白酒持续出清，关注成长板块估值修 复—食品饮料行业周报》2025.08.26 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 盐津铺子、百润股份、海天味业、安琪酵母。 风险提示：食品安全风险；消费复苏不及预期；成本上行；业绩 增速不及预期；行业竞争加剧；宏观经济政策出台和落地不及预 期的风险；第三方数据统计偏差风险。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 2025/09/19 | | | EPS（元） | | | | PE | | 投资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股价（元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][29] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a pullback last week, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index declining by 2.53%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points. Consumer demand remains weak, as indicated by a 3.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods in August, totaling 39,668 billion yuan [4][29] - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with the extent and duration of this adjustment dependent on improvements in consumer demand and the industry's innovation capabilities. The trend towards lower alcohol content is expected to continue, with younger consumers favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [4][30] - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with good growth potential and low valuations after recent pullbacks, particularly in the context of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Food and Beverage Index ranked 25th among Shenwan's primary industries, with sub-sectors like pre-processed foods, soft drinks, health products, and beer showing slight increases, while others, including white liquor, experienced declines [4][29] White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards quality enhancement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation. The report highlights the importance of monitoring actual sales during the upcoming festive season [4][30] - Specific companies to watch include Shunxin Agriculture, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [4][30] Consumer Goods Sector - Companies like BaiRun Co. are expanding their whiskey product lines and enhancing marketing strategies to build sales channels. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer preferences and market trends [4][31] - Angel Yeast is noted for its potential growth in overseas markets, particularly in Europe, where it aims to expand its product offerings and localize production [4][31] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that meet consumer needs for health and personal satisfaction, highlighting stocks such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yanjin, BaiRun Co., Haitian Flavoring, and Angel Yeast as potential investment opportunities [4][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Recommended" [2][20]. Core Insights - The AI industry continues to show high prosperity, with a confirmed turning point for industry recovery [3]. - Huawei has launched new supernode products, Atlas 950 SuperPoD and Atlas 960 SuperPoD, which significantly outperform competitors in key metrics [4][12]. - Alibaba's upcoming Cloud Summit is expected to focus on AI infrastructure and applications, with strong growth in AI-related revenues [18][19]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Huawei's new supernode products support 8192 and 15488 Ascend cards, respectively, and are set to meet the growing domestic demand for computing power [4][12]. - The Atlas 950 supernode is expected to launch in Q4 2026, with performance metrics significantly exceeding those of NVIDIA's upcoming products [14][17]. Financial Performance - Alibaba's cloud intelligence group reported a 26% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI-related products achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [18][19]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 38.676 billion RMB, a 220% increase year-on-year, maintaining a target of 380 billion RMB for AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI infrastructure companies such as Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China, Inspur Information, and others, as well as Alibaba's partners [20]. - The shift in AI competition from single-card performance to system-level efficiency is highlighted, with a recommendation to monitor developments in AI infrastructure [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation of economic prosperity may continue to influence style performance, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the market, increasing by 0.72% and 0.37% respectively [5][12][28] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, with a decrease of 2.9%, which is 0.7 percentage points less than the previous month, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [17][21][28] - Import and export data for the first eight months of 2025 shows exports at 17.61 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, while imports decreased by 1.2% to 11.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline [21][28] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that stable funding is crucial for market support, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a fluctuation range of 1.52% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [27][28] - The industry and thematic allocation suggests focusing on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, as well as industries benefiting from domestic demand policies, including machinery, home appliances, and consumer electronics [28][39] - The report highlights the performance of various industry indices, with significant attention on sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy [28][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4]. Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 5.171 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a record high in profit, with revenue reaching 2.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, and a net profit of 812 million yuan, up 18.31% year-on-year [6]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.85% and a net margin of 27.7% in the first half of 2025, with improvements in profitability metrics [6]. - The traditional hydraulic cylinder business showed steady growth, with sales of excavator hydraulic cylinders increasing by over 15% year-on-year [6]. - The company has made significant strides in its linear actuator business, launching over 50 new products and expanding its market reach [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.429 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.97% growth [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 41.85%, with a net margin of 27.7%, indicating improved profitability [6]. Business Growth - The traditional hydraulic cylinder segment experienced robust growth, with sales of excavator hydraulic cylinders reaching 308,300 units, a year-on-year increase of over 15% [6]. - The company’s new product lines, including compact hydraulic valves and radial piston motors, have seen significant sales growth, with non-excavator hydraulic pump and valve products growing over 30% year-on-year [6]. Market Expansion - The company’s overseas production base in Mexico has commenced operations, enhancing supply chain resilience and enabling localized service offerings [6]. - The linear actuator segment has seen dual breakthroughs in technology development and market promotion, with nearly 300 new customer accounts established [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.897 billion yuan, 3.259 billion yuan, and 3.573 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4x for 2025, 36.8x for 2026, and 33.6x for 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [2][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.13% increase last week, with notable gains in the snack (+10.20%), dairy (+2.67%), and liquor (+2.14%) sub-sectors. The report highlights that the release of performance pressures in the liquor sector and stable growth in leading companies in snacks, dairy, and condiments are key factors for the positive outlook [6][34]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the liquor sector, particularly in the context of recent policy impacts, suggesting that valuation recovery may precede fundamental improvements. It recommends focusing on specific companies within the liquor sector that are expected to rebound [34]. - The snack sector is identified as having strong growth potential driven by new retail formats and product categories, with significant revenue increases reported by leading companies [35]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 2.13%, ranking seventh among major sectors. The snack sector led with a 10.20% increase, followed by dairy and liquor [16][34]. Liquor Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, only a few liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, reported positive revenue and net profit growth. The report notes that the liquor demand has been under pressure since the second quarter due to policy changes, but expectations for recovery are building [6][34]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai for their potential in valuation recovery [34]. Snack Sector Analysis - The snack sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Youyou Foods and Wancheng Group reporting substantial revenue increases of 45.59% and 109.33%, respectively. The report suggests that new consumer trends favoring health and self-satisfaction will drive further growth in this sector [35][30]. Key Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a stock price of 1,480.00 yuan with an expected EPS growth from 68.64 yuan in 2024 to 74.38 yuan in 2025 [36]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, showing a 4.19% year-on-year increase [32]. - Hai Tian Wei Ye achieved a revenue of 152.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.59% increase, with a net profit growth of 13.35% [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's profitability is improving, with attention on positive changes from the supply side [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.34% to 4.368 billion yuan [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the average price of cement and clinker was 274.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.28 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the average cost decreased by 9.25 yuan/ton, leading to a comprehensive gross profit margin of 28.41%, up by 5.70 percentage points [5] - The company sold a total of 12.7 million tons of cement and clinker, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year [5] - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 93.285 billion yuan, 100.296 billion yuan, and 106.363 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 9.871 billion yuan, 10.728 billion yuan, and 11.022 billion yuan [6][5] Market Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry are expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by government investments in infrastructure and major strategic projects, although the real estate market remains under pressure [5] - The average PE ratio for the company is projected to be 13.1, 12.0, and 11.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 14.8 times PE [5][7]