策略研究报告 证券研究报告 ——A 股投资策略周报告 华龙证券研究所 A 股市场走势(2024/07/19-2025/07/18) 姓 名：朱金金 执业证书编号：S0230521030009 邮 箱：zhujj@hlzq.com "山重水复"到"柳暗花明》2025.07.10 移》2025.07.01 《A 股投资策略周报告：5 月经济稳中 有进》2025.06.23 摘要（核心观点）： 策略报告 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日 关注政策和业绩催化方向 "反内卷"行情具备延续性。7 月 1 日之后，"反内卷"利好方向持续发 酵，相关板块表现较好。"反内卷"行情的实质是基于相关行业业绩改善 预期下的价值重估过程，同时叠加需求端持续发力，有望提升"反内卷" 行情的空间。"反内卷"与供给侧改革政策均旨在破除低效供给，历次供 给侧改革引发的相关板块行情持续性较强，如钢铁、煤炭行情持续时间贯 穿前两次 PPI 回升周期。 美国关税政策影响钝化。美国对等关税豁免延期，从加征趋势来看，多数 较初期加征力度略有下调，整体上来看，美国关税政策可能在做通胀方面 的权衡，以及可能对美国经济带来的影响，未表现出更加激进的关 ...

汽车"反内卷"政策有望逐步落地推进 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 21 日 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 联系人：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230124020003 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 2025.07.06 用车市场销量增长—汽车行业周报》 2025.06.23 现金流有望改善—汽车行业周报》 2025.06.16 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：汽车"反内卷"政策有望逐步落地推进。近期，中央 政府集中召开会议部署推进规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序工作， 汽车领域"反内卷"具体措施有望落地。根据前期会议风向，我 们认为政策或将聚焦降价促销提前报备、经销商库存检测、国内 新增产能控制和供应商账期严格监控等，近三年以来价格战频发 的乘用车市场竞争态势有望得到缓和。具备产品优势的整车公司、 现金流改善确定性较强的国央车企供应商以及弹性较大的中小供 应商有望受益。 行业动态：行业要闻，一是吉利汽车与极氪科技正式签署合并协 议；二是财政部 ...

——叉车销量数据点评报告 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：邢甜 执业证书编号：S0230521040001 邮箱：xingt@hlzq.com 证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 16 日 6 月内外销高增长，关注叉车投资机会 《把握"高科技+低估值"双主线，攻守 兼备布局下半年—机械设备行业 2025 年中期策略报告》2025.07.06 《工程机械开工率有所下降，出口景气 2025.06.09 《4 月挖机销量同比+17.6%，制造业 PMI 同环比下滑—机械设备行业周报》 2025.05.27 事件： 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2025 年 7 月 15 日，统计与经济运行部发布 6 月工程机械行业主 要产品销售快报。 观点： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 6 月叉车销量：据中国工程机械工业协会对叉车主要制造企业统 计，2025 年 6 月当月销售各类叉车 137570 台，同比增长 23.1%。 其中国内销量 83892 台，同比增长 27.3%；出口量 53678 台，同 比增长 17.2%。 1—6 月叉车累计销量：2025 年 1-6 月共销售叉车 739334 台，同 比增 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market is not over, and investors should focus on growth opportunities [8][119] - The easing of trade friction between China and the U.S. has led to improved bilateral trade conditions, with both sides reducing tariffs [8][50] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven capital inflows into the market, which are expected to stabilize market performance [8][91] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has caused significant short-term disruptions to its major trading partners, with trade balances showing varying degrees of decline [8][14] - The report notes that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite the negative impacts of tariff policies, with a rebound in service sector PMI [8][30] - Historical analysis indicates that U.S. tariff policies often lead to self-inflicted economic consequences, typically resulting in negotiations or retractions [8][44] Group 3: Industry Themes and Opportunities - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including defense and military, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI technologies, and autonomous robotics [8][119] - The defense and military sector is highlighted due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand and performance [8][119] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with market size estimates reaching 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8][119] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is gradually recovering, with retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in May [8][64] - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, supported by government policies and funding [8][70] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a reduction in the inventory of unsold properties and a narrowing decline in housing prices [8][73]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! CDSE ~ 华龙证券 从"山重水复"到"柳暗花明" -A股市场2025年中期投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 策略 分析师：朱金金 SAC执业证书编号: S0230521030009 邮箱: zhujj@hlzq.com 2025年7月10日 证券研究报告 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE S 华龙证券 2025年1月1日-2025年6月30日市场走势(单位: %) 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% 上指数 -- 开采300 相关报告 《A股月度金股:7月市场中枢或有上移》 2025. 07. 01 《A股市场2024年报及2025年一季报综述:二季度关注政策催化且业绩保持韧 性方向》 2025. 5. 17 《2025年A股投资策略报告:启航新时期,逐梦高质牛》 2024. 12. 09 资料来源:Wind,华龙证券研究所 请认真阅读文后免责条款 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE 3 华龙证券 目 录 1 对等关税 扰动可控 2 摩擦缓和 政策显效 3 长牛未央 坚守成长 ...

Group 1 - The communication industry is experiencing steady growth, with 92 covered companies achieving a total revenue of 625.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, and a net profit of 52.14 billion yuan, up 7.12% [5][62] - The optical module and satellite internet sectors are performing exceptionally well, with significant demand for high-end optical modules and a rapid expansion of the satellite internet market [5][62] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the communication industry, emphasizing investment opportunities in optical modules and satellite internet [5][62] Group 2 - The demand for high-end optical modules is robust, driven by the rise of AI applications, with the global market for 800G Ethernet optical modules expected to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2025 [5][38] - Chinese companies are increasing their market share in the optical module sector, with seven out of the top ten global suppliers being Chinese [5][38] - The satellite internet industry is rapidly developing, supported by government policies, with the market expected to reach 59.34 billion yuan by 2031 [55][62] Group 3 - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with global market size expected to reach 158.7 billion yuan by 2025, which will further drive the demand for optical modules [31][35] - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers in North America is increasing, indicating a sustained demand for AI servers and related optical modules [33][35] - The satellite internet applications are diversifying, covering various sectors including government, defense, and public services, with a focus on low-latency and high-bandwidth services [45][55]

Group 1 - The automotive sector has shown significant excess returns driven by smart driving and robotics, with the automotive index rising by 8.91% as of H1 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.88 percentage points [7][16][20] - The passenger vehicle market is expected to accelerate its convergence, supported by policies like vehicle trade-in, with a retail sales volume of 8.82 million units in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [27][35] - Domestic automakers are rapidly expanding overseas, with a two-digit growth in passenger vehicle exports in early 2025, particularly in hybrid models, and a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America [50][54][60] Group 2 - The L2 and L4 autonomous driving segments are set to see significant growth, with an expected sales volume of 5.5 million mid-to-high-level autonomous vehicles in 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 22.9% [7][66] - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing marginal changes, with leading companies like Tesla and Figure AI actively deploying robots in industrial settings, which may enhance their capabilities and accelerate mass production [7][63] - Investment recommendations highlight key players such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely in the passenger vehicle market, as well as leading smart driving companies like Seres and XPeng Motors [8][10][60]

Group 1: Overview and Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline in performance in the first half of 2025, with the sector's valuation dropping from 22.4X to 20.8X, reaching historical lows [6][10][18] - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth and net profit growth slowed down in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with revenue at 326.41 billion yuan, a 2.59% year-on-year increase, and net profit at 81.55 billion yuan, a 0.27% increase [18][6] - The sector's performance varied significantly across sub-industries, with snacks showing the fastest revenue growth at 30.96%, while the liquor sector faced a notable slowdown [18][6] Group 2: Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with Q1 2025 revenue growth at 1.60% and net profit growth at 2.26%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rates of 7.25% and 7.41% respectively [29][30] - Liquor companies are focusing on inventory control and price stability to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, with many companies adopting a "suspension of sales" strategy to prepare for peak seasons [30][32] - The long-term outlook for the liquor industry suggests potential recovery as inventory clears and sales improve, with companies increasingly prioritizing shareholder returns through higher dividend payouts [36][32] Group 3: Snack Food Sector Dynamics - The snack food sector is projected to exceed a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by product innovation and new distribution channels [44][50] - In Q1 2025, the snack food sector reported a revenue of 22.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.96% year-on-year growth, although net profit saw a decline due to high base effects from the previous year [44][50] - The growth in the snack food sector is attributed to the expansion of new product categories and channels, with a focus on health-oriented snacks gaining traction among consumers [50][54] Group 4: Soft Drink Industry Trends - The soft drink industry is experiencing accelerated product innovation and heightened competition, with a notable increase in the introduction of new products [59][60] - The market for functional beverages, including low-sugar and health-oriented drinks, is expanding, driven by consumer demand for healthier options [59][62] - The bottled water market is projected to exceed 310 billion yuan by 2025, with major brands capturing significant market shares [62][60] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the food and beverage sector, anticipating a recovery driven by consumer spending initiatives and structural growth opportunities in high-demand segments [7][6] - Key investment opportunities include companies in the snack food, soft drink, and pet food sectors, which are expected to benefit from emerging consumer trends and market dynamics [7][6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yili Group, among others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery [7][6]

新秩序、新经济：金属的重新锚定与价值重估 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2025年中期策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年07月04日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.1-2025.6.30市场走势（单位：%） 相关报告 | 相对沪深300表现（2025.06.30) | | | （单位：%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 沪深300 | 2.5 | 0.53 | 13.71 | | 有色金属（申万） | 9.26 | 5.5 | 18.66 | 《有色金属行业周报：中美领导人通电话，经贸会谈持续推进》2025.6.9 《有色金属行业周报：未来一周金属价格或持续波动》2025.5.26 《海亮股份（002203.SZ）公司深度研究：扩规模、提周转，全球铜加工龙头 无惧周期》2025.5.21 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 • 黄金： Ø 通过复盘黄金历 ...

证券研究报告 计算机 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 30 日 蚂蚁集团推出 AI 医疗 C 端产品，关注 AI+医疗投资机会 执业证书编号：S0230124010005 邮箱：zhulx@hlzq.com 《稳定币的新进展和应用场景—计算机 行业点评报告》2025.06.23 《火山引擎 FORCE 大会召开，豆包大 模型 1.6 正式发布—计算机行业点评报 告》2025.06.16 《AI 产业高景气度持续验证，看好应用 与算力投资机会—计算机行业周报》 2025.06.09 请认真阅读文后免责条款 ——计算机行业点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzq.com 事件： 2025 年 6 月 26 日，蚂蚁集团正式推出面向 C 端的 AI 健康应用 ——AQ，旨在通过 AI 技术简化就医流程、提升健康管理效率。 分析师：孙伯文 联系人：朱凌萱 融合多模态交互技术，整合多方资源打造个人健康助手。蚂蚁集 团推出 AI 健康应用 AQ，整合了健康科普、就诊咨询、报告解读、 健康档案等上百项功能，并连接全国超 5000 ...