证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 27 日 2026 年首月政策过渡期，新能源渗透率短暂承压 ——汽车行业周报 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 《英伟达发布自动驾驶模型平台， 报》2026.01.12 业爆发—汽车行业点评报告》2025.12.29 《反内卷+国补预计延续，看好 2026 年 车市向好—汽车行业周报》2025.12.29 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：2026 年 1 月新能源渗透率短暂承压，看好高端化&出 海自主车企。据乘联分会预计，2026 年 1 月我国狭义乘用车零售 销量 180 万辆左右，环比-20.4%，同比微增 0.3%，2026 年新一轮 以旧换新补贴已启动，政策的延续与优化预计在全年对汽车市场 构成稳定有力的支撑。新能源方面，2026 年 1 月新能源零售销量 预计为 80 万辆左右，同比-40.2%，环比+7.5%。短期市场正处于 关键的政策衔接与转换期。新能源汽车购置税补贴变化，叠加 1 月天气寒冷，年前首购用户价格敏感需求占优等多重因素，新能 源市场热度相对较低，预计 1 月渗透率将为阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant commercial opportunities emerging. Major players like NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are investing heavily in AI drug development, while domestic companies like Ant Group are promoting AI health management products [5][13][14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has transitioned into the "AI service era," integrating over 400 AI service functions and achieving over 100 million monthly active users, indicating strong user engagement and ecosystem integration [15][17]. - The report highlights the importance of AI infrastructure development in China, emphasizing the need for a self-sufficient and efficient computing foundation to support the growing demand for AI applications [16]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Healthcare - The report notes that AI is reaching a commercialization inflection point in healthcare, with significant investments and partnerships forming to accelerate AI drug development and health management solutions [5][13][14]. - Key areas of growth include AI drug development, AI-assisted medical imaging, and personal health management, which are expected to see increased investment and demand [14]. Development of AI Ecosystem - Domestic tech giants are leveraging their vast user bases and data resources to build comprehensive AI ecosystems, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [15][16]. - The integration of AI services within existing platforms is seen as a critical factor for rapid deployment and market penetration [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing companies such as Cambricon (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) [6][17]. - It also recommends monitoring vertical AI application companies like Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), and Han's Information (300170.SZ) for potential investment opportunities [6][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant commercial opportunities emerging. Major players like NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are investing heavily in AI drug development, while domestic companies like Ant Group are promoting AI health management products [5][13][14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has transitioned into the "AI service era," integrating over 400 AI service functions and achieving over 100 million monthly active users, showcasing the potential for AI applications in enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a self-sufficient and efficient computing infrastructure in response to increasing global competition and the exponential growth of AI application demands [16]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Healthcare - The AI healthcare sector is at a commercial inflection point, with significant investments from both domestic and international companies. Key areas of growth include AI drug development, medical imaging analysis, and personal health management, which are expected to see increased investment value as clinical validation and regulatory frameworks improve [5][14]. Development of AI Ecosystem - Domestic tech giants are rapidly advancing their AI ecosystems, leveraging their large user bases and data resources. This integration is expected to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency across various sectors [15][16]. Market Performance - The computer sector index rose by 3.82% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, indicating positive market sentiment [8]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including: - AI Computing: Cambrian (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) [6][17]. - Vertical AI Applications: Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), Hand Information (300170.SZ), and others [6][17].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, with structural differentiation observed in industry performance, particularly favoring growth and cyclical sectors [4][22][24] - Growth and cyclical sectors showed better performance last week, with average returns of 0.37% and 0.19% respectively, while other styles like consumption and stability experienced declines [5][13] - The report highlights that the 2025 foreign trade achieved rapid growth, with total imports and exports reaching 45.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8%, and exports growing by 6.1% [18] Group 2 - The macro liquidity outlook remains positive, with financial totals growing rapidly and a continued implementation of moderately loose monetary policy expected in 2026 [19][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural adjustments in monetary policy, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates to enhance credit support for key sectors [21] - The report identifies key investment themes, including technology and advanced manufacturing, domestic demand expansion, and opportunities arising from supply-demand changes, with specific sectors like electronics, automotive, and medical devices highlighted for potential investment [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Nvidia has launched a new open-source AI model platform, Alpamayo, aimed at enhancing the capabilities of autonomous vehicles and facilitating the industrialization of Robotaxi services [5][15]. - The first fully autonomous vehicle utilizing Nvidia's system is set to undergo road testing in the US in Q1 2026, with plans for L4 level autonomous taxi services to commence in 2027 [5][25]. - The report highlights significant growth opportunities for companies involved in the autonomous driving ecosystem, including hardware suppliers and Robotaxi operators, due to reduced development costs and shorter timelines [5][16]. Industry Dynamics - Key industry news includes the announcement that China aims to achieve 18.3 million vehicle trade-ins from 2024 to 2025, with nearly 60% expected to be electric vehicles [18]. - Geely has received a license for L3 level autonomous driving road tests, marking a significant step in the development of smart driving technologies [21]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance has been mixed, with the automotive index underperforming compared to the broader market [5][35]. Market Performance - From January 5 to January 9, 2026, the automotive sector's index increased by 2.53%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.79% [5][35]. - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various automotive sub-sectors, indicating a positive trend in automotive services and parts, with the automotive services sector seeing a 6.01% increase [5][35]. Data Tracking - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.261 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.15% but a month-on-month increase of 1.60% [46]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales reached 59.1%, with retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaling 1.337 million units in December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [60]. - The report also highlights the increasing adoption of advanced driving assistance systems, with L2.5 and above penetration rates reaching 37.96% in November 2025 [73].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the growth sector outperformed last week, with significant contributions from industries such as brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, AI, and new energy, supported by favorable PMI data showing a high-tech manufacturing PMI of 52.5%, up 2.4% from the previous month [5][14][19]. - Price data has shown improvement, with CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, driven by increased consumer demand and holiday shopping. Core CPI has remained above 1% for four consecutive months [19][20]. - The brain-computer interface sector has seen notable performance due to supportive industrial policies, technological advancements, and market dynamics, with projections estimating the global medical application market to reach $40 billion by 2030 and $145 billion by 2040 [20][22]. Group 2 - The market outlook is positive, with major indices showing gains: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.82%, the CSI 300 by 2.79%, and the Wind All A Index by 5.11% during the observed period [25]. - The report highlights a strong increase in new A-share accounts, with 2.5967 million new accounts opened in December 2025, a 9% month-on-month increase and a 31% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust market sentiment [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural factors in the market, focusing on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, as well as policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with specific attention to automotive, medical devices, and home appliances [26].

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The report highlights the performance of various ETFs, with the Satellite ETF showing a significant increase of 7.72% on the trading day [5][6]. - The top-performing ETFs include the Satellite Industry ETF with a rise of 7.55% and the Satellite ETF from E Fund with a 7.07% increase [5]. - The trading volume for the Satellite ETF reached 38,691.01 thousand yuan, while the Satellite Industry ETF had a trading volume of 50,380.39 thousand yuan [5]. Group 2: Fund Flow Monitoring - The report indicates that the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund had a net inflow of 270,258.54 thousand yuan on the previous trading day, with a daily increase of 1.23% [8]. - The A500 ETF Leader experienced a slight decline of 0.17% but still had a significant net inflow of 90,435.65 thousand yuan [8]. - The report lists the top ETFs by net inflow, with the Nonferrous Metals ETF leading, followed by the A500 ETF Leader and the CSI 300 ETF [8]. Group 3: Margin Trading Activity - The Securities ETF recorded a financing purchase of 42,272.77 thousand yuan, despite a daily decline of 0.41% [15]. - The report notes that the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF had a financing purchase of 40,667.67 thousand yuan, with a decrease of 1.12% on the trading day [15]. - The margin trading data indicates that the CSI 500 ETF had a financing purchase of 29,028.08 thousand yuan, reflecting a stable interest in this ETF despite market fluctuations [15].

Group 1 - The external environment presents uncertainties but is overall favorable, with global economic resilience expected in 2026, as major economic organizations forecast slight declines in growth rates compared to 2025, with the World Bank predicting a growth rate of 2.40% for 2026, up from 2.30% in 2025 [6][10] - The U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates in 2026 due to a weak labor market, with expectations of more than one rate cut, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's recent actions [6][13] - The U.S. dollar's strength is supported by weak economic expectations, with factors such as reduced immigration and uncertain tariff policies suppressing economic activity [6][21] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for qualitative and quantitative economic growth, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with policies to support effective growth and enhance quality [6][44] - The investment sector is expected to stabilize, with government initiatives to increase investment in infrastructure and optimize the use of local government bonds [6][49] - Consumer spending is projected to improve, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [6][52] Group 3 - The market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with overall company performance anticipated to improve, driven by supportive policies and resilient economic dynamics [6][59] - The technology (TMT) and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from long-term policy support and are key drivers of economic transformation [6][67] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as non-involution, supply-demand changes, and emerging themes like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [6][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Baidu's collaboration with Uber and Lyft to launch a Robotaxi pilot project in the UK in 2026 is a significant development, indicating a global expansion strategy for domestic Robotaxi operators [3][4]. - The report highlights that leading domestic Robotaxi operators are achieving positive unit economics (UE) per vehicle, driven by fleet expansion and reduced vehicle costs, with expectations for rapid growth in fleet size in 2026 [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved operational performance and market expansion for Robotaxi operators, particularly in regions where traditional ride-hailing costs are significantly higher than in China [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic importance of partnerships with international ride-hailing platforms for domestic Robotaxi operators, facilitating their global market expansion [4]. - It notes that the first L3 level vehicles have received approval for mass production, marking a significant step towards the widespread application of autonomous driving technology [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that leading players in the Robotaxi sector are achieving profitability on a per-vehicle basis, with companies like Luobo Kuaipao and Xiaoma Zhixing reporting positive unit economics in specific cities [4]. - The cost of autonomous driving kits has decreased significantly, with Xiaoma Zhixing reporting a reduction of over 70% compared to previous generations, further supporting profitability [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as XPeng Motors, Desay SV, Huayang Group, Bertel, Junsheng Electronics, Xiaoma Zhixing, Horizon Robotics, Nexperia, and Top Group, as they are expected to perform well in the growing Robotaxi market [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive market is expected to improve in 2026 due to the continuation of the "trade-in" subsidy and measures against excessive competition [4][15]. - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasized the optimization of the "two new" policies, which include large-scale equipment updates and trade-in subsidies [4][15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has highlighted the importance of regulating competition in the automotive market, particularly for new energy vehicles and related industries [4][15]. Industry Dynamics - **Industry News**: Beijing has issued the first L3 level special license plates for autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant milestone in the automotive industry's shift towards intelligent vehicles [16][18]. - **New Models**: New models launched include Great Wall Motors' Wei brand Blue Mountain and Dongfeng's Fengxing Lightning [30][31]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points, with a sector increase of 2.74% from December 22 to December 26, 2025 [4][33]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector is 29.2 times, reflecting an increase from the previous week [39]. Data Tracking - **Monthly Data**: In November 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.2254 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11% [40][54]. - **Weekly Data**: From December 15 to 21, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles totaled 536,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 11% [109]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong new product cycles such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, SAIC Motor, and XPeng Motors [4][5]. - It also recommends companies involved in supply chains and advanced technologies like Longsheng Technology and Junsheng Electronics [4][5].