证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 汽车反内卷新政出台，行业价格乱象有望纠正 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 分析师：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 报》2025.12.09 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：汽车反内卷新政出台，行业价格乱象有望纠正。2025 年 12 月 12 日，国家市场监督管理总局发布《汽车行业价格行为 合规指南（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《指南》），从生产端、销售 端和制度建设三方面对汽车行业价格行为进行规范。《指南》发布 后，已有比亚迪、北汽集团和小鹏汽车等多家车企表态积极响应。 本次《指南》的发布是 2025 年初以来汽车行业反内卷的重要政策 拼图，有望进一步遏制不合理、不合法竞争行为，从零部件到整 车厂再到经销商的各环节盈利空间也有望迎来边际修复。 行业动态：行业要闻，一是 2026 年鸿蒙智行将走入 L3、L3+时 代；二是理想汽车预计三年内推出首款 L4 级自 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 09 日 特斯拉发布 Optimus 跑步视频，关注量产进展&设计增量环节 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 《乘用车业绩分化，商用车高景气有望 持续—汽车行业 2025 年三季报综述》 2025.11.12 《特斯拉发布平价版车型，关注全球市 场销量拉动作用—汽车行业周报》 2025.10.14 《乘用车企拐点将至，关注汽零强势赛 道&客户—汽车行业 2025 年半年报综 述》2025.09.24 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：特斯拉发布 Optimus 跑步视频，关注量产进展&设计 增量环节。2025 年 12 月 3 日，特斯拉官方社交媒体账号发布其 旗下人形机器人 Optimus 跑步视频，并配文称"刚刚在实验室刷 新了个人纪录"，视频中 Optimus 姿态拟人度高，速度较快，或指 Optimus 跑步等运动性能方面取得新突破。特斯拉于 ...

证券研究报告 人形机器人 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 09 日 美政府或发布机器人产业政策，国产整机厂商产品密集发布 ——人形机器人行业专题研究周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 请认真阅读文后免责条款 摘要： 5 . 投资评级：推荐（维持） 行情回顾：2025 年 12 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，人形机器人 指数涨跌幅+1.85%。同期沪深 300 涨跌幅+1.28%，上证综指涨跌 幅+0.37%，深证成指涨跌幅+1.26%，创业板指涨跌幅+1.86%，科 创 50 涨跌幅-0.08%。 特朗普政府考虑 2026 年发布机器人行政命令。特朗普政府正在 考虑加码机器人产业相关政策。据财联社消息，美国商务部长卢 特尼克近期一直在与机器人行业的多位 CEO 会面，且美国政府正 考虑在明年发布一项关于机器人技术的行政命令。美国交通部也 正准备成立一个机器人工作组，可能在年底前宣布。除此以外， 美国国会议员对机器人技术的兴趣也在上升，共和党人曾提出设 立国家机器人委员会。 分析师：李浩洋 银河通用完成股份制改革。12 月 5 日，银河通用企业名称从"北 京银河通用机器人有限公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant structural growth characteristics, with high-end products and exports being the core driving forces for the machine tool sector [4] - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [8] - For the period from January to November 2025, a total of 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [8] - Loader sales in November 2025 reached 11,419 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with domestic sales at 5,671 units (up 29.4%) and exports at 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [8] - The report indicates a strong domestic replacement demand for engineering machinery, driven by equipment renewal policies, and a rapid growth in exports with an improving structure [8] - The "Belt and Road" initiative regions are experiencing industrialization and infrastructure growth, while the North American market is expected to recover due to a rate cut cycle and replenishment demand [8] - The European market shows signs of marginal improvement after two years of decline, and Chinese brands have significant growth potential in the European and American markets due to low penetration rates [8] - Electrification and intelligence are opening new growth curves, enhancing both volume and pricing, while also broadening application scenarios [8] - Leading companies are expected to continue increasing their market share overseas, supported by technological upgrades and global expansion strategies [8] Summary by Sections - **Excavator Sales Data**: November 2025 saw excavator sales of 20,027 units, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase. Year-to-date sales reached 212,162 units, up 16.7% [8] - **Loader Sales Data**: November 2025 loader sales were 11,419 units, a 32.1% increase year-on-year, with year-to-date sales at 115,831 units, up 17.2% [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading companies with a well-established global presence, including XCMG (000425.SZ), SANY Heavy Industry (600031.SH), LiuGong (000528.SZ), Shantui (000680.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), and Zhongji United (605305.SH) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [2][3]. Core Views - The mechanical equipment industry saw a 2.9% increase last week, ranking second among 31 primary industries. Sub-industries such as engineering machinery (+6%) and specialized equipment (+3.45%) showed strong performance, while rail transit equipment experienced a decline of 0.82% [3][14]. - The report suggests that with the completion of the third-quarter reports, market risk appetite is expected to improve. It recommends a balanced approach between technology growth and cyclical investments, focusing on sectors and stocks with performance support [3][4]. - Key areas of focus include humanoid robots, PCB equipment, semiconductor equipment, and cyclical recovery in engineering machinery and general equipment [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Trends - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales were 9,842 units (+9.11%), while exports were 10,185 units (+18.8%). Cumulatively, from January to November, 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% increase year-on-year [5][44]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in the industry, driven by domestic demand from large projects and a new round of replacement cycles [5][44]. 2. Sub-Industry Performance - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with excavator sales showing strong growth. The report emphasizes the importance of technological upgrades and global expansion for leading companies [5][44]. - The industrial robot sector saw a production increase of 17.9% in October 2025, indicating potential investment opportunities as the industry adjusts to new demands [28][44]. 3. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report identifies several companies for investment consideration, including XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), SANY Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Huazhong CNC (688697.SH), which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery and technological advancements in the industry [7][44]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with companies like North Huachuang (002371.SZ) and Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) recommended due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4][7]. 4. Policy and Market Drivers - The report notes that government policies are strongly supporting the high-end machine tool sector, with initiatives aimed at accelerating domestic production and technological breakthroughs [5][46]. - The global demand for high-end manufacturing is recovering, as indicated by Japan's machine tool orders, which have seen continuous growth driven by exports [5][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's export sales increased significantly, with a month-on-month growth of 57.2%, indicating that international expansion is driving the recovery of profitability [5][6]. - Despite a year-on-year decline of 5.3% in domestic sales for November 2025, the cumulative sales for the first eleven months of 2025 showed an increase of 11.3% compared to the previous year [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of high-end brands, which accounted for 10.8% of total sales in November 2025, driven by successful new product launches [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, BYD achieved total sales of 480,200 vehicles, with a cumulative total of 4,182,000 vehicles sold from January to November 2025 [5]. - The sales breakdown by brand shows that the Dynasty and Ocean series, along with other high-end models, performed well despite overall sales pressure [5]. Export Growth - BYD's export sales of new energy vehicles reached 131,900 units in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 325.9% and a month-on-month increase of 57.2% [5]. - The export sales accounted for 27.5% of total sales in November, up from 19.0% in October 2025 [5]. Product Development - The report notes a rapid pace of new product launches in Q4 2025, with several mid-to-high-end models introduced, which are expected to enhance the product mix and drive sales growth [5]. - High-end models like the Fangcheng Leopard and Tengshi series have shown strong market acceptance, contributing to the overall sales performance [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for BYD's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 36.814 billion, 50.726 billion, and 61.462 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to intense domestic competition [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23.9 for 2025, 17.4 for 2026, and 14.3 for 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The machine tool industry exhibits significant structural growth characteristics, with high-end manufacturing and exports being the core driving forces. The metal cutting machine tool segment achieved a revenue growth of 10.8%, production growth of 14.8%, and export growth of 13.6%, significantly outperforming the overall industry level. This reflects the rigid demand for high-end processing equipment in high-tech fields such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, and precision molds [4][6] - The overall industry shows a structure of "stable domestically and growing externally," with growth momentum shifting from scale expansion to technological leadership and global market expansion. Short-term prosperity is constrained, but there are marginal improvement signals from policy expectations and inventory adjustments [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From January to October 2025, the machine tool industry achieved a total operating income of 851.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The metal cutting machine tool segment saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.8%, while the metal forming machine tool segment grew by 7.5%. New orders for metal processing machine tools increased by 7.3%, and the backlog of orders grew by 4.3% [3][4] Import and Export Data - The total import and export value of machine tool products reached 27.42 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The import value was 8.48 billion USD, up 1.4%, while the export value was 18.94 billion USD, increasing by 7.7%. Specifically, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was 3.95 billion USD (up 0.6%), and the export value was 5.10 billion USD (up 13.6%). For metal forming machine tools, the import value was 520 million USD (down 9.8%), while the export value surged to 2.80 billion USD (up 38.2%) [4][6] Investment Recommendations - The current industry export performance is better than domestic demand, driven by global supply chain restructuring and industrialization needs in emerging markets. The report suggests focusing on companies with core technological capabilities, outstanding internationalization, and the ability to respond quickly to small and medium-sized enterprises. Recommended stocks include Kede CNC, Haitian Precision, Huazhong CNC, and others [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][19]. Core Insights - The acceleration of space computing deployment is creating a new competitive landscape in the AI industry, with significant developments from both China and the United States [4][14]. - The global AI industry is entering a resonance period, driven by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and the commercialization of downstream applications [5][18]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission announced plans for a space data center construction, aiming to build a system with over GW power in low Earth orbit by 2035 [4][14]. - China's "Trisolaris Computing Constellation" successfully launched its first 12 satellites, marking a significant milestone in space computing infrastructure [4][14]. Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and its startup partner Starcloud launched the first space AI server equipped with the H100 chip for a three-year testing mission [4][14]. - Google is exploring the integration of its TPU chips into satellites to utilize solar energy for power [4][14]. Key Company Performance - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, with AI-related products seeing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [5][18]. - Google’s TPU has become a strong competitor to NVIDIA, with the latest generation achieving significant performance metrics [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas: domestic chips (e.g., Haiguang Information, Cambrian), domestic servers (e.g., Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China), AI applications (e.g., Kingsoft Office, iFlytek), and space computing (e.g., Aerospace Intelligent Equipment, Zhongke Xingtou) [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the construction materials industry [2][4][35] Core Insights - The construction materials industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional sectors like cement and glass facing weak short-term demand, while the fiberglass sector shows promising growth due to rising prices of mid-to-high-end products [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side changes in traditional industries and capitalizing on opportunities arising from the price increases in mid-to-high-end fiberglass products [4][35] Cement Industry Summary - In October, cement demand weakened due to adverse weather conditions in northern regions and tight funding in southern regions, leading to a 2% month-on-month decline in national cement shipment rates and a 9% year-on-year decline [4][11] - The average price of cement in October was 348.96 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 2.19 RMB/ton from September, indicating ongoing weak demand [4][11] - Key companies to watch include Shengfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [4][11] Glass Industry Summary - The glass market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation after experiencing a brief price increase in October, with no strong reduction in supply anticipated [26][36] - The cumulative production of flat glass from January to October 2025 was 805 million weight cases, a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [18] - Industry leader Qibin Group (601636.SH) is highlighted as a key player to monitor [26][36] Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass sector is witnessing a price increase, particularly in high-end electronic yarns and fabrics, with G75 yarn prices rising to 9100 RMB/ton in October, up 500 RMB/ton from September [28][35] - The demand for fiberglass in wind power and new energy vehicles remains strong, with a year-on-year increase in industrial wind power generation of 7.6% from January to October 2025 [27][28] - Key companies in the mid-to-high-end fiberglass market include China Jushi (600176.SH), China National Materials (002080.SZ), and Honghe Technology (603256.SH) [28][35] Consumer Building Materials Summary - The retail sales of building and decoration materials showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5% from January to October 2025, indicating modest demand growth [31] - Recent policy directions from the 20th Central Committee emphasize promoting high-quality development in real estate, which is expected to provide a foundation for long-term industry transformation [31][37] - Recommended companies in this sector include Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Sankeshu (603737.SH) [31][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the semiconductor equipment sector, with growth momentum injected by the acquisition of Guan Hong Intelligent. The company has transitioned through various phases, including product upgrades, rapid expansion post-IPO, and now entering a diversified growth phase focusing on smart robotics and solid-state battery equipment [3][4] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand and a push for localization. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, with a strong competitive edge in the precision metal structural components sector [3][4] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the solid-state battery market, which is expected to see substantial growth due to its high energy density and safety features. The global solid-state battery shipment is projected to reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, with the equipment market size expected to be between 718-958 billion yuan [3][4] - The company is also expanding into the smart industrial robotics sector, leveraging its existing technology and understanding of customer needs in manufacturing [3][4] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment Sector - The company has established itself as a leader in the semiconductor equipment sector, with a CAGR of 19.7% in the semiconductor equipment structural components from 2019 to 2024. The revenue from this segment is closely tied to the demand in the semiconductor industry [19][23] - The acquisition of Guan Hong Intelligent is expected to enhance the company's revenue growth, with Guan Hong's revenue projected to contribute significantly in 2025 [19][23] Domestic Semiconductor Equipment Market - The semiconductor market is recovering, with a projected sales increase of 20.1% in 2024 and 11.7% in the first three quarters of 2025. The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $125.5 billion in 2025 [29][32] - The company is benefiting from the increasing localization of semiconductor equipment, with domestic revenue and market share expected to rise as the domestic equipment penetration rate increases [42] Solid-State Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company focusing on dry process equipment for solid-state batteries. The transition from traditional liquid batteries to solid-state technology is expected to drive demand for new equipment [53][64] - The company is developing solutions for dry electrode technology, which is more efficient and cost-effective compared to traditional methods, and has already secured orders from leading battery manufacturers [53][64] Smart Industrial Robotics - The company is expanding into the smart industrial robotics market, leveraging its existing technology and expertise in automated systems. This move is expected to capitalize on the growing demand for intelligent logistics solutions [3][4]