有色金属行业周报：新龙矿业停产整顿，供给紧张进一步推升锑价

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights supply tightness due to the suspension of operations at the Finniss lithium mine and the shutdown of Xinlong Mining, which has led to rising antimony prices. Additionally, social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 1,052 tons [5] - The investment strategy recommends focusing on small metals with relatively inelastic supply, such as rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten, due to a combination of manufacturing restocking and increased supply-side uncertainties [5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 2,692.79 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 2,367.30 billion yuan, comprising 131 listed companies [3] Price Trends - The report notes a general decline in small metal prices, with specific price movements including a 2.02% drop in the main contract for lithium carbonate and a 4.52% decrease in the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate [5][11] - Antimony prices have increased by 1.16%, while tin prices have shown a downward trend, with SHFE tin prices down by 5.98% and LME tin prices down by 9.26% [6][5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report indicates a slowdown in demand growth, with the photovoltaic sector seeing a significant increase in new installations, reaching 19.04 GW in May 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [16] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1,003,000 and 1,049,000 units in June, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 28.1% and 30.1% [17] Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is experiencing intensified competition, with lithium prices showing volatility. The main contract for lithium carbonate has decreased to 89,800 yuan per ton, while the spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is at 84,500 yuan per ton [37] - The report highlights that the supply of lithium carbonate is facing challenges, with a weekly production of 14,709 tons and an increase in inventory levels [37] Rare Earths and Other Metals - The report discusses the impact of the State Council's "Rare Earth Management Regulations," which continue to enforce total control over rare earth production, indicating that prices are nearing historical lows [6] - Antimony prices are expected to rise further due to supply tightness, with domestic antimony ore prices at 131,000 yuan per ton [6] - Tin prices are projected to trend upwards due to a lack of effective capital expenditure and a recovery in semiconductor demand [5]