东航物流：电商出海东风助力，航空物流龙头起飞

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7][10][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for cross-border e-commerce, with a supply-demand imbalance in the air freight industry leading to increasing freight rates. The company has a competitive advantage due to its control over key transportation resources and ground service facilities [4][10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Domestic Air Logistics Service Provider - The company is the first professional air freight enterprise in China to complete mixed-ownership reform and go public, with a diverse shareholding structure [17]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2018 to 2023 [21]. 2. Tightening Supply-Demand Dynamics, Industry Outlook - The air freight industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with limited capacity from all-cargo aircraft and slow recovery in passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity. The demand for air logistics is driven by the surge in cross-border e-commerce [5][33]. - In 2023, China's cross-border e-commerce exports reached 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [5]. 3. Sufficient Profitability Elasticity in Air Logistics, Stable Ground Service Revenue - The air express business is expected to benefit from rising air freight rates, with the average air freight price index at Pudong Airport in Q2 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [6]. - Ground service remains a stable revenue contributor, with the company maintaining over 50% market share at Shanghai Airport [6][25]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 252.4 billion yuan, 307.3 billion yuan, and 350.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.4%, 21.8%, and 14.1% [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32.5 billion yuan, 36.9 billion yuan, and 41.2 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 30.6%, 13.6%, and 11.5% [7][13].