CHOW TAI FOOK(01929) 国盛证券·2024-07-24 01:01Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][3] Core Views - Short-term demand fluctuations, with FY2025 Q1 RSV down 20% YoY [1] - Mainland RSV down 18.6% YoY, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets down 28.8% YoY [1] - FY2025 revenue expected to remain flat, with single-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - Adjusted FY2025-2026 net profit forecast to HKD 7,001/7,800/8,684 million, with FY2025 PE at 11x [1] Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue: HKD 108,713 million, up 14.8% YoY [2] - FY2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 6,499 million, up 20.7% YoY [2] - FY2025E revenue: HKD 109,550 million, up 0.8% YoY [2] - FY2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: HKD 7,001 million, up 7.7% YoY [2] - FY2025E EPS: HKD 0.70, up 7.7% YoY [2] Market and Operations - As of June 2024, the company operates 7,429 Chow Tai Fook jewelry stores globally (7,284 in Mainland China, 87 in Hong Kong and Macau, and 58 in other markets) [1] - Net closure of 91 Chow Tai Fook stores in Mainland China during April-June 2024 [1] - Focus on optimizing store structure and improving single-store operations [1] - Pricing products sales ratio increased from 5.7% to 15.8% YoY in FY2025 Q1 [1] Product Performance - Gold jewelry and products same-store sales down 27.9% YoY in April-June 2024 [1] - Jewelry inlaid, platinum, and K-gold jewelry same-store sales down 31.7% YoY in April-June 2024 [1] - Pricing products sales performance strong, partially offsetting the weak performance of weight-based products [1] Valuation Metrics - FY2025E P/E: 11.3x [2] - FY2025E P/B: 2.3x [2] - FY2025E ROE: 21.0% [2] - FY2025E ROIC: 13.0% [2] Stock Information - Industry: Other Retailers [3] - Closing price on July 23, 2024: HKD 7.91 [3] - Market capitalization: HKD 79,003.00 million [3] - Total shares outstanding: 9,987.74 million [3] - 30-day average trading volume: 11.32 million shares [3]