POE行业研究报告：光伏胶膜拉动需求，国产化进程加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for POE (Polyolefin Elastomer) is driven by the growth in photovoltaic (PV) encapsulation films, with a significant acceleration in domestic production capabilities [3][4] - The global demand for photovoltaic films is projected to reach 4.0 to 4.41 billion square meters in 2024, with corresponding increases in the demand for POE particles [3][29] - The report highlights the high technical barriers in the POE industry, which has been historically dominated by foreign companies, but notes that domestic production is rapidly advancing [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: POE's Superior Performance - POE combines the properties of both plastic and rubber, making it suitable for various applications including photovoltaic cells, automotive parts, and aerospace [6][10] - The material exhibits excellent weather resistance and aging properties, with a low density typically below 0.890 g/cm³ [6][10] Section 2: POE Supply - Global POE production capacity is concentrated among a few major foreign companies, totaling approximately 1.68 million tons per year [21][23] - Major producers include Dow Chemical, ExxonMobil, and LG Chem, with a high industry concentration (CR5 = 98.21%) [21][23] Section 3: POE Demand - The demand for POE is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which accounted for 40% of POE's downstream applications in 2021 [27][29] - The report forecasts that the demand for photovoltaic-grade POE particles will reach approximately 388,300 to 428,100 tons from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a steady increase [29][46] Section 4: High Technical Barriers and Accelerated Domestic Production - The report identifies three main technical barriers in POE production: high-carbon α-olefins, single-site metallocene catalysts, and solution polymerization technology [3][4] - Domestic companies are breaking through these barriers, with significant projects like the successful commissioning of a 200,000 tons/year POE facility by Wanhua Chemical in June 2024 [3][4] Section 5: Company Focus - The report suggests focusing on companies with proprietary knowledge in POE particle production and rapid industrialization, including Dingjide, Wanhua Chemical, and Satellite Chemical [3][4]