CHOW TAI FOOK(01929) 天风证券·2024-07-24 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's retail performance in FY25Q1 showed a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales, with a significant increase in the retail value of fixed-price gold products in mainland China, growing over 100% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its retail network by enhancing store productivity and profitability, resulting in the closure of 91 jewelry retail points in mainland China during the quarter [2]. - Same-store sales faced pressure, with declines of 37% in mainland China and 36% in Hong Kong and Macau, while the average selling price of gold products showed stable growth [3]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of HKD 113.6 billion, HKD 121.4 billion, and HKD 130.3 billion for FY25-27, with net profits of HKD 6.9 billion, HKD 7.6 billion, and HKD 8.5 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales in mainland China decreased by 18.6%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a decline of 28.8% [1]. - The retail value of fixed-price gold products increased significantly, accounting for nearly 16% of total sales, up 10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Product and Channel Analysis - In mainland China, gold products accounted for 76.9% of sales, with a stable average selling price increase of HKD 800, reaching HKD 6,200 [3]. - The online retail value represented 5.8% of total sales, with sales volume at 13.8% [1]. Financial Projections - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25-27 are HKD 0.69, HKD 0.76, and HKD 0.85, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [4].