Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The strategic cooperation between the company and Volkswagen Group is expected to significantly enhance revenue generation, with projections indicating potential profits in the billions by 2026 [1]. - The collaboration expands the scope of vehicle platforms from the previously established CMP platform to include the MEB platform, which is crucial for global market strategies [1]. - The first model featuring the jointly developed electronic and electrical architecture (EEA) is anticipated to enter mass production within 24 months [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 400 billion, 736 billion, and 851 billion CNY respectively, with a projected non-GAAP net profit margin improving from -14% in 2024 to 0.4% in 2026 [1][6]. - The company expects to sell approximately 17,000, 36,000, and 42,000 vehicles in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. - The anticipated tax-pre profit from the Volkswagen partnership is projected to be 9 million, 13 million, and 18 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The report estimates that the software platform cooperation will generate around 3 billion CNY in revenue in Q1 2024, gradually increasing each quarter [1]. - The EEA joint development is expected to contribute approximately 14 billion CNY in revenue by 2026, based on projected vehicle sales and pricing assumptions [1][10]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The report highlights a high gross margin for the software platform cooperation at 90% and for the EEA joint development at 80% [1][10]. - The company aims to reduce its Bill of Materials (BOM) costs by 25% for new models and by 50% for hardware costs related to its XNGP technology [1]. Market Position and Valuation - The report assigns a valuation of 32 billion USD to the Volkswagen cooperation segment, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 30x for 2024 estimates [1]. - The conservative valuation for the core business is set at 79 billion USD, leading to a target price of 46.1 HKD for the stock [1].
小鹏汽车-W:大众合作深化,望获可观变现