国君研究|半导体 · 新一轮景气周期推荐系列

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, highlighting a new round of investment opportunities driven by AI and industry recovery [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, with multiple chip prices rising due to improved supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chip production in response to increasing demand for self-sufficiency amid US-China tech tensions, particularly in high-function safety MCUs, silicon carbide (SiC), and isolation chips [2]. - The report notes that the utilization rate of mature process fabs in mainland China exceeded 90% in Q2 2024, indicating strong performance compared to global peers [2]. - TSMC's Q2 financial results and Q3 guidance exceeded expectations, with a projected doubling of CoWoS growth by 2025, driven by AI demand [2]. - Several domestic chip design companies have issued positive earnings forecasts, particularly in the storage and SoC sectors, indicating an upward trend in market conditions [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Recovery - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a recovery phase, with demand gradually improving from the cyclical bottom [2]. - The report highlights the emergence of new products and innovations, particularly in AI, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [2]. Section 2: Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - The report discusses the acceleration of domestic chip production in response to rising demand for self-sufficiency, particularly in the automotive sector [2]. - The SiC supply chain is noted to be rapidly developing, with significant advancements in substrate and epitaxial devices [2]. Section 3: Performance Metrics - The report provides insights into the performance of semiconductor design companies, indicating that the fundamentals have bottomed out and are showing signs of improvement [2]. - The report also mentions the upward trend in capital expenditures in the packaging and testing segment, signaling a positive outlook for related equipment manufacturers [2].