KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-07-24 09:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][12] Core Views - The company's retail value for FY2025 Q1 decreased by 20.0% year-on-year, impacted by macroeconomic conditions and fluctuations in gold prices [4][5] - The forecast for net profit for FY2025-2027 has been adjusted to 6.685 billion (-5.91 million), 7.233 billion (-9.44 million), and 7.991 billion (-12.29 million) HKD, with corresponding EPS of 0.67 (-0.06), 0.72 (-0.09), and 0.80 (-0.12) HKD [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.8, 10.9, and 9.9 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In mainland China, FY2025 Q1 retail value decreased by 18.6%, accounting for 87.8% of the group's retail value, with same-store sales down by 26.4% [5] - Outside mainland China, FY2025 Q1 retail value decreased by 28.8%, with same-store sales down by 30.8% [5] Operational Focus - The company is focusing on improving operational quality, with a notable sales increase in the newly launched "Chuanfu" series of gold products [6] - The company closed 91 stores in mainland China during FY2025 Q1, ending with a total of 7,284 stores, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing existing store performance rather than aggressive expansion [6] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2023 was 94.684 billion HKD, projected to grow to 120.635 billion HKD by FY2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [7] - Net profit for FY2023 was 5.384 billion HKD, expected to reach 7.991 billion HKD by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.5% [7] - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 20.8% from FY2025 onwards, with net margin improving to 6.8% by FY2027 [7]