2024年6月财政数据点评：财政的当下与未来

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - National general public budget revenue for January to June was CNY 115,913 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, but a comparable growth of approximately 1.5% after adjusting for special factors[3]. - National general public budget expenditure for the same period was CNY 136,571 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, achieving 47.8% of the annual budget target[5]. Tax Revenue Insights - Domestic value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were -5.6%, 6.8%, -5.5%, and -5.7%, respectively[3]. - The decline in tax revenue is primarily attributed to previous tax reduction policies and a high base from the previous year[3]. Fiscal Policy and Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2024 is expected to be proactive, with an emphasis on implementing existing macro policies and increasing fiscal spending intensity[14]. - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, with a target of CNY 3.9 trillion in new local government special bonds for 2024[10]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment from January to June saw a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, indicating ongoing structural challenges in the sector[8]. - Land transfer income for local governments fell by 18.3% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of reduced real estate activity[9]. Government Spending Focus - Social security and employment expenditures reached 54.8%, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing employment amid economic recovery efforts[5]. - The government is implementing measures to support youth employment, with a youth unemployment rate of 13.2% for those aged 16-24[5]. Challenges and Risks - The "de-real estate" trend is causing a significant decline in fiscal revenue, with a total drop of CNY 31,397 billion (29.7%) from the peak in 2021 to 2023[7]. - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate is slow, which may hinder government consumption and affect GDP growth in Q2[39].