宏观经济评论

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 13 was 240,000, exceeding expectations of 229,000 and the previous value of 222,000[16] - The number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.867 million, marking the highest level since November 2021, indicating economic cooling[16] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.1%, prompting market expectations for an 88.5% probability of a rate cut in September[16] Semiconductor Industry - ASML's disappointing Q3 guidance has raised concerns, but TSMC's performance is not necessarily correlated, as TSMC continues to optimize existing equipment to reduce costs and improve margins[5] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant adjustments due to ASML's poor guidance and potential U.S. trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology to China[18] Market Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a summer decline in the U.S. stock market due to seasonal weakness and tight positioning, suggesting a potential self-fulfilling prophecy[19] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in high-performing sectors like semiconductors and explore opportunities in consumer, financial, industrial, and real estate sectors[19] Bitcoin and AI - Long-term optimism for Bitcoin remains, viewed as an effective hedge against fiat currency depreciation despite uncertainties regarding Trump's potential policies on cryptocurrency[6] - Nvidia's market cap could reach $49 trillion in 10 years if demand grows at 60% annually, though a 35%-40% price correction is also anticipated[8]