Tesla(TSLA)2024-07-25 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential decline of 14% from the current price of $246.4 [1][3]. Core Insights - The revenue for Q2 2024 slightly exceeded expectations at $25.5 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, primarily driven by significant growth in the energy segment [1][6]. - The operating profit for Q2 2024 was below expectations, with a net profit of $1.478 billion, a 45% decline year-on-year, despite a 31% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. - The company anticipates the launch of a low-cost model in the first half of 2025, with expected deliveries exceeding 60,000 units next year and a significant increase in subsequent years [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024E revenue is projected at $97.555 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1%. The net profit is expected to drop to $7.139 billion, reflecting a 53% decline [2][7]. - For 2025E, revenue is forecasted at $112.792 billion, with a 16% growth, and net profit is expected to recover to $10.658 billion, a 50% increase [2][7]. - By 2026E, revenue is projected to reach $139.660 billion, with a 24% growth, and net profit is expected to be $15.232 billion, reflecting a 43% increase [2][7]. - Key Financial Metrics: - Q2 2024 gross margin was 18.0%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The operating expense ratio increased by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a decrease in operating profit margin to 6.3% [6]. Valuation - The valuation of Tesla is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, assigning target P/E ratios of 65.0x for automotive sales, 45.0x for automotive leasing, and 35.0x for services and other businesses, resulting in a target price of $210.8 [1][8].