中国平安：预计上半年业绩仍承压，但估值吸引

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 34.25 [1][3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face pressure on performance in the first half of 2024, but its valuation remains attractive. The new business value is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by an increase in the new business value rate [1][2]. - The report highlights a decline in new individual insurance premiums by 5.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a slight improvement in the new business value rate to 23.1% in the second quarter [1][2]. - The company plans to issue USD 3.5 billion in 5-year convertible bonds, which will provide investors with the option to convert to shares, thereby reducing financing costs and having a limited dilution effect [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The expected comprehensive cost ratio for the property and casualty insurance segment is 99.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points due to a slowdown in auto insurance growth and natural disaster impacts [2][6]. - The report anticipates a 3% year-on-year decline in operating profit attributable to the parent company (OPAT) for the first half of 2024, with a more significant decline of 18% in the property insurance segment [2][6]. - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is expected to decrease by 2% year-on-year, with a potential recovery in profit growth in the second half of the year [2][6]. Business Segment Insights - The life and health insurance segment is projected to maintain stable performance, while the property insurance segment is expected to see a significant decline in profits due to concentrated underwriting losses from credit guarantee insurance [2][6]. - The new business value for the life insurance segment is expected to reach RMB 96 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, with the new business value rate improving to 22.9% [1][6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company currently has a dividend yield exceeding 7%, and the report suggests a high certainty of a year-on-year recovery in operating profit for 2024 [3][6]. - The report provides updated forecasts for key financial metrics, including a projected net profit of RMB 94.825 billion for 2024, which is a 3.5% decrease from previous estimates [7][13].