印度系列研究报告之七：莫迪3.0首秀引发股汇市场震荡

Group 1: Budget Overview - The Indian government announced a fiscal budget with a stimulus plan of ₹2 trillion (approximately $23.9 billion) aimed at job creation and economic stimulation[1] - The budget targets a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP for FY 2025, down from 8.6% in 2023, indicating a tightening fiscal policy[13] - Key focus areas include infrastructure, manufacturing, and foreign direct investment (FDI) encouragement[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the budget announcement, the Nifty 50 index dropped by 1.8% and the SENSEX 30 index fell by 1.5% before recovering slightly[10] - The Indian rupee hit a historic low of ₹83.6788 against the dollar, reflecting market volatility[10] - The government raised short-term capital gains tax from 15% to 20% and long-term capital gains tax from 10% to 12.5%, marking the first increase since 2008[10] Group 3: Tax and Trade Policies - Import duties on gold and silver were reduced from 15% to 6%, which may support global gold prices but could increase trade deficits[25] - The budget includes a reduction in corporate tax rates from 40% to 35% to attract foreign investment[53] - The government aims to simplify regulations for foreign investments, enhancing India's appeal to international investors[55] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Political uncertainties and geopolitical tensions pose risks to the stability of the Indian market[60] - Historical experiences of foreign companies facing penalties in India highlight potential challenges for international investors[56] - The budget's tax increases may have short-term negative impacts on capital markets, but could lead to a more sustainable investment environment in the long run[59]