NONGFU SPRING(09633) 海通证券·2024-07-25 08:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][6] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in the beverage sector, with revenue contribution from this segment increasing from 42.14% in 2017 to 52.51% in 2023, and a CAGR of 20.4% from 2017 to 2023 [4] - The beverage industry in China showed a cumulative production of 98.1 million tons in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, indicating a favorable market environment for the company's beverage business [3][4] - The introduction of green bottle packaging for purified water is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the bottled water market [4] - The company has maintained a stable cost structure, with net profit margin increasing from 19.31% in 2017 to 28.15% in 2023, suggesting continued strong profitability [4] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for the company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at 48.065 billion, 56.586 billion, and 65.901 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.069 billion, 15.608 billion, and 18.704 billion [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.16, 1.39, and 1.66 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The company’s sales net profit margin is expected to remain strong, with a gross margin of approximately 58.50% in 2024, improving to 60.00% by 2026 [5][8] Valuation - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 30-35 times for 2024E, translating to a per-share value range of 34.80 to 40.60 yuan, which corresponds to a reasonable value range of 38.67 to 45.11 HKD per share [6]