房地产市场周报：中央定调地产领域改革，调控措施有望持续优化

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, with expectations for continued policy support and potential recovery in core cities [2][10]. Core Insights - The recent Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized the need to mitigate real estate risks and accelerate the establishment of a new development model for the sector [2][10]. - Local governments are implementing supportive measures, such as Beijing's "old-for-new" housing program and various cities reducing mortgage rates, which are expected to stimulate demand [2][10]. - As of July 21, 2024, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 35.98% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a smaller decline of 29.89% [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report highlights a shift towards more proactive real estate policies, with local governments introducing various support measures to boost housing demand [2][10]. - The overall tone of real estate regulation is expected to become more positive, with administrative restrictions likely to ease [2][10]. 2. Policy Dynamics and Key News - National statistics reveal a 19.0% year-on-year decline in new commercial housing sales area for the first half of 2024, with residential sales down by 21.9% [11]. - The Central Committee's decision includes accelerating the establishment of a dual rental and purchase housing system and enhancing local governments' autonomy in real estate market regulation [13]. 3. High-Frequency Data on Housing Market - From July 15 to July 21, 2024, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 11.28% month-on-month and 33.52% year-on-year [15]. - The cumulative transaction area for the year up to July 21 shows a significant decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a smaller drop compared to second and third-tier cities [15]. 4. Land Market Data - The land market is showing signs of cooling, with a 15.90% increase in land supply but a 42.97% decrease in land transaction area from July 15 to July 21, 2024 [32][36]. - The average land price for transactions in 100 major cities has seen fluctuations, with a notable increase in the premium rate for land transactions [37]. 5. Real Estate Development Investment Data - As of June 2024, total real estate development investment reached 52,528.83 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.10% year-on-year decrease, with residential investment down by 10.40% [43].