2024年下半年资产配置及行业投资策略：均衡之道

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of internal momentum within the industry, focusing on new productive forces and technological advancements as key drivers for growth [1][55]. - In the first half of the year, economic performance showed a trend of supply exceeding demand, indicating potential challenges for industries reliant on consumer spending [2][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential improvement in sales year-on-year, driven by policy measures aimed at inventory reduction and housing construction [27][6]. Group 2 - Consumer recovery is slow, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as evidenced by retail sales growth rates [32][11]. - Exports remain resilient but face uncertainties due to increased tariffs from the US and EU on Chinese products, which could impact future trade dynamics [13][16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, which typically correlates with increased investment, although demand remains weak [21][41]. Group 3 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing robust investment growth, outpacing overall manufacturing, indicating a shift towards advanced industries [55]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, driven by low-carbon policies, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape for leading firms [116][117]. - The copper market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, supported by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors [111][86].