人民币汇率波动点评：海外大跌引发降息提前预期

Market Overview - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations, with the onshore USD/CNY rate dropping from 7.27 to 7.22, a decline of nearly 0.8% as of July 25[6] - The decline in the USD is attributed to a sharp drop in US stock markets, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices falling by 1.25%, 3.64%, and 2.31% respectively on July 24, marking the largest declines since 2022[6] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen to 78.5% due to weakening US economic data and stock market performance[6] Economic Factors - The US manufacturing PMI fell below 50, and new home sales in June were below expectations, indicating a continued slowdown in the US economy[6] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, allocating approximately 300 billion CNY in special bonds, which positively impacts domestic economic expectations[7] - Anticipation of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the end of July has led to a significant appreciation of the yen, further pressuring the USD and benefiting the RMB exchange rate[13] Future Outlook - As the Fed approaches a rate cut, external constraints on domestic monetary policy are expected to weaken, alleviating pressure on the stock market from the exchange rate[14] - The strong USD earlier in the year had posed significant pressure on the RMB, but the outlook suggests a gradual easing of this pressure as the Fed's rate cut becomes more imminent[14]