光伏板块2024Q2持仓分析

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic sector [1][38]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector has experienced a decline of 19.95% in Q2 2024, continuing a trend of weakening market performance [3][8]. - The overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is at a historically low level, with a PE-TTM of 15.11x, reflecting a 29.81% increase since the beginning of 2024, but still within the 31.62% percentile since 2019 [6][31]. - The report emphasizes that the current price levels in the industry chain are at the bottom, suggesting a potential turning point in the second half of the year [3][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings and Allocation - As of Q2 2024, the total market value of fund holdings in the photovoltaic equipment sector decreased to 57.755 billion yuan, a 27.93% decline from Q1 2024, representing only 2.18% of all fund holdings [10][12]. - The sector's overweight position has narrowed to 1.17%, down 0.43 percentage points from the previous quarter [12][10]. 2. Market Performance Analysis 2.1 Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sample sector, comprising 48 listed companies, saw an overall decline of 17.71% in Q2 2024, with the silicon wafer segment experiencing the largest drop at 30.03% [15][3]. 2.2 Top Fund Holdings - The top ten fund holdings in the photovoltaic sector by market value include: 1. 阳光电源 (Yanguang Electric) - 22.991 billion yuan, down 18.19% 2. 晶科能源 (JinkoSolar) - 7.240 billion yuan, up 73.98% 3. 德业股份 (DeYee) - 3.983 billion yuan, up 35.78% 4. 隆基绿能 (LONGi Green Energy) - 3.041 billion yuan, down 27.46% 5. 天合光能 (Trina Solar) - 2.537 billion yuan, down 68.97% 6. 特变电工 (TBEA) - 2.527 billion yuan, down 12.22% 7. 晶澳科技 (JA Solar) - 2.388 billion yuan, down 60.00% 8. 通威股份 (Tongwei) - 2.116 billion yuan, down 52.24% 9. 迈为股份 (Meyer Burger) - 1.970 billion yuan, up 33.52% 10. 福斯特 (Foster) - 1.682 billion yuan, down 55.73% [18][19]. 2.3 Historical Changes in Key Companies - 迈为股份 (Meyer Burger) saw a significant increase in fund holdings, with a market value of 1.970 billion yuan, up 33.52% from the previous quarter [22][27]. - Conversely, 通威股份 (Tongwei) experienced a decrease of 52.24% in fund holdings, with a market value of 2.116 billion yuan [22][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear overseas growth trends and those benefiting from potential European interest rate cuts, such as 阳光电源 (Yanguang Electric) and 德业股份 (DeYee) [31][3]. - It also highlights the importance of new technology developments and leading material companies at the bottom of the market cycle [31][3].