Tianfeng Securities·2024-07-26 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price of HKD 73.3 [1]. Core Views - The report anticipates an increase in GMV and monetization rates, driven by the launch of the full-site promotion by Taobao Group, which is expected to stimulate new growth momentum [1]. - The forecast for FY25Q1 includes revenue of CNY 248.8 billion, a year-over-year growth of 6.2%, with adjusted EBITA expected at CNY 40.5 billion, reflecting a decline of 10.8% year-over-year [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing stock buyback program, with a total of 613 million shares repurchased for USD 5.8 billion as of June 30, 2024, and an authorized remaining amount of USD 26.1 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25Q1 revenue is projected at CNY 248.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.2% [1]. - Adjusted EBITA is expected to be CNY 40.5 billion, down 10.8% year-over-year, with an EBITA margin of 16.3% [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at CNY 42.1 billion, a decrease of 6% year-over-year [1]. Business Segments - Taobao Group's revenue is expected to grow by 2.8% year-over-year in FY25Q1, supported by strong performance during the 618 shopping festival [1]. - Cloud business revenue is projected to increase by 4.8% year-over-year in FY25Q1, aided by significant price reductions for AI models [1]. - International commerce revenue is anticipated to grow by 34.7% year-over-year in FY25Q1, bolstered by strategic partnerships and investments [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The full-site promotion launched by Alibaba is expected to enhance GMV growth and improve monetization rates across various merchant types [1]. - The report notes the successful application of AI across multiple sectors, with over 90,000 enterprises utilizing Alibaba Cloud services [1]. - The company is preparing for a dual primary listing in Hong Kong, expected to be completed by the end of August 2024 [1].