6月社融数据点评：货币政策转型中的变与不变

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The growth rate of social financing (社融) in June was 8.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a total of 18.1 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, which is 3.45 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[16] - In June, the net financing of government bonds reached 847.6 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 537.1 billion yuan in the same month last year, indicating a potential increase in government financing support for the real economy in the second half of the year[16] - The total new loans in June amounted to 2.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 920 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in credit structure towards more effective utilization[17] Group 2: Monetary Aggregates and Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in June was -5.0%, down 0.8 percentage points, while M2 grew by 6.2%, lower than the previous value by 0.8 percentage points[29] - The M1-M2 differential remained consistent at -11.20 percentage points, with social financing growth still positive relative to M2 at 1.90%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[29] - Household deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in June, which is 533.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a decline in both household and corporate deposits[29] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - The current monetary policy transition requires careful observation of financial data fluctuations, emphasizing the need for a dual adjustment of both quantity and structure in monetary policy[35] - The central bank's recent adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and other interest rates aim to enhance liquidity management and stabilize the bond market[37] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, potential over-adjustments in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and domestic economic uncertainties that could impact market performance[38]