2024年二季度美国GDP数据点评：经济景气不影响降息预期

Economic Growth - The initial value of the US real GDP for Q2 2024 is 2.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 2%[6] - Personal consumption expenditure contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3%[2] - Government spending contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth, with state and local government spending contributing 0.3 percentage points[3] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 5.2%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by investments in equipment and intellectual property products[7] - Residential investment saw a significant decline to -1.4%, detracting 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth[7] - Inventory investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing a previous drag of -0.4 percentage points[7] Trade and Exports - Net exports detracted 0.7 percentage points from GDP growth, consistent with previous quarters[8] - The trade deficit in May reached $75 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $100.15 billion[8] - The service trade surplus was $25.1 billion, indicating ongoing trade imbalances[8] Market Expectations - Following the GDP release, the market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts in September, with the 2-year Treasury yield around 4.40% and the 10-year yield at approximately 4.22%[5] - The US dollar index briefly strengthened to 104.4 before retreating, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices rebounded amid unchanged rate cut expectations[5]