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商业航天专题:商业航天发展加速,将迎万亿级别市场
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-26 06:25

Market Overview - The commercial aerospace market is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to increase from 42 billion yuan in 2023 to 61 billion yuan by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.72%[4] - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites dominate global satellite launches, with 2,096 out of 2,118 satellites launched in 2022 being LEO satellites[12] Key Players and Projects - China's GW constellation, operated by China Satellite, plans to deploy 12,922 satellites for broadband internet services[7] - The G60 constellation, led by Shanghai Yuanxin, aims to launch over 12,000 satellites, with at least 108 satellites to be operational by 2024[7] - SpaceX's Starlink has launched over 4,500 satellites and is a leading player in the global satellite internet market[19] Cost Reduction Strategies - Rocket reusability and multi-satellite launches are key to reducing costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieving a 70% cost reduction through reusability[83] - Satellite manufacturing costs in China are currently around 30 million yuan per satellite, but are expected to drop below 10 million yuan through mass production and process improvements[68] Technological Advancements - LEO satellites are favored for communication due to their low latency, high speed, and wide coverage, making them ideal for satellite internet services[11] - The development of 6G networks is driving the integration of satellite communication, with China Telecom already offering satellite-to-phone services[38] Industry Challenges - The high cost of rocket and satellite technology development remains a significant barrier, with potential delays in reusable rocket and multi-satellite launch technologies posing risks to cost reduction efforts[124] - Limited private capital investment in the commercial aerospace sector could slow down industry growth[113]